585
FXUS21 KWNC 111809
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT AUGUST 11 2025
SYNOPSIS: MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) TO THE INTERIOR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF
WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS INCREASED CHANCES FOR EXTREME HEAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST, WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR AUG 20-21. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC MAY LEAD TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS COASTAL
CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MULTIPLE MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION REMAINING OFFSHORE BUT COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED WINDS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WED-THU, AUG 20-21.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR MANY PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST, TUE-MON, AUG
19-25.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR PARTS OF TEXAS, TUE-WED, AUG 19-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST, TUE-SAT, AUG 19-23.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, TUE-FRI,
AUG 19-22.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY AUGUST 14 - MONDAY AUGUST 18:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY AUGUST 19 - MONDAY AUGUST 25: THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS TO THE INTERIOR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THIS
PATTERN SUPPORTS INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF EXTREME TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS DESIGNATED FOR PARTS OF TEXAS, AUG
19-20, WHERE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) AND HEAT TOOLS SHOW AT LEAST A
20% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 100 DEG F.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS ITS FOCUS TO ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST, SO DOES THE RISK FOR
EXTREME HEAT. A MODERATE RISK (40-60% CHANCE) OF EXTREME HEAT IS POSTED FOR
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AUG
20-21. MULTIPLE PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, WITH VALUES EXCEEDING 95 DEG F ACROSS THE
DESIGNATED RISK AREA (GREATER THAN 110 DEG F ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST). A
BROADER AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST
THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) DOES NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD AREAS ANTICIPATED TO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES, WITH ONLY
WESTERN COLORADO INDICATED FOR POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. ANTICIPATED
DRY, HOT CONDITIONS AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY SUPPORT INCREASED WILDFIRE
RISK. THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER (NIFC) INDICATES MODERATE RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL AT THE END OF WEEK-1 AND THERE ARE CURRENTLY ACTIVE
WILDFIRES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.
AS OF 2PM EDT, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS TROPICAL STORM ERIN LOCATED
WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE WESTWARD,
ALTHOUGH MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. DESPITE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE, IT
COULD SUPPORT HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST. THEREFORE,
A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS DESIGNATED FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, AUG 19-23. PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF
WIND SPEED EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 25 MPH. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA COMBINED WITH
ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MAY LEAD TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A SLIGHT
RISK OF PERIODIC HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA, AUG 19-22. THE
ECENS AND GEFS PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE AND 25 MPH. THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS ENSEMBLE SHOWS AT LEAST A
20% CHANCE OF 10-M WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH IN THIS REGION.
POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT DEPARTURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MEAN WEEK-2
PATTERN FOR ALASKA, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE AND THE ALEUTIANS. NO HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALASKA CURRENTLY.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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