788
FXUS21 KWNC 141753
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT AUGUST 14 2025
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR EXTREME HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED WINDS ALONG PARTS OF
THE WEST COAST. IN THE EAST, TROPICAL STORM ERIN MAY TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
U.S. EAST COAST TO BRING PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS EARLY IN WEEK-2. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. IN
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND THE OHIO VALLEYS DECLINING SOIL MOISTURE
AND NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS INCREASES
CHANCES FOR RAPID ONSET DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, FRI, AUG 22.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR MANY PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST, FRI-SAT, AUG
22-23.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL VALLEY, FRI-SUN, AUG
22-24.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF MOST OF THE EAST
COAST, FRI-SAT, AUG 22-23.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, FRI-THU,
AUG 22-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SURROUNDING REGIONS FOR SAT-SUN, AUG 23-24.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY AUGUST 17 - THURSDAY AUGUST 21:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY AUGUST 22 - THURSDAY AUGUST 28: THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS
AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, WITH MAXIMUM 500-HPA HEIGHTS NEAR 595 DM CENTERED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS THE INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
EXTREME HEAT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. A MODERATE RISK (40-60% CHANCE) OF EXTREME
HEAT IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AUG 22. MULTIPLE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) SHOW AT
LEAST A 40% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, WITH VALUES EXCEEDING 95 DEG F ACROSS THE DESIGNATED RISK
AREA (GREATER THAN 110 DEG F ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST). A BROADER AREA IS
HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGH AUGUST
23RD.
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS ALSO INDICATED OVER THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL
VALLEY FOR AUG 22-24 WITH PETS INDICATING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 100 DEG F ACROSS
MUCH OF THE VALLEY. ANTICIPATED DRY, HOT CONDITIONS AND MODERATE WINDS MAY
SUPPORT INCREASED WILDFIRE RISK. THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER (NIFC)
INDICATES MODERATE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL AT THE END OF WEEK-1 AND
THERE ARE CURRENTLY ACTIVE WILDFIRES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA-ARIZONA BORDER COMBINED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST MAY LEAD TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODIC HIGH WINDS
FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA, AUG 22-28. THE ECENS AND GEFS PETS INDICATE
AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 25 MPH
FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE.
AS OF 2PM EDT, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) ANALYZED TROPICAL STORM ERIN
OVER THE LOW-LATITUDES OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE NHC FORECASTS ERIN TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH THE STORM TRACK BEGINNING
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEYOND DAY 3. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND THE NHC FORECAST PERIOD WITH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATING A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED THE
EAST COAST AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE
TROPICAL STORM EAST OF THE U.S. HOWEVER, IF THE TROUGH REMAINS LESS AMPLIFIED
THE STORM COULD PROGRESS FURTHER WEST AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST.
THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST COAST,
AUG 22-23. RESIDENTS LIVING NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP
UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AND THEIR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.
AN AREA CENTERED OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS HAS SEEN A DETERIORATION OF SOIL
MOISTURE ANOMALIES OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS. THIS AREA IS FURTHER FORECAST TO SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO
WEEKS. THIS WOULD FURTHER DRY AND INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT FOR
THE AREA. THEREFORE, A CORRESPONDING HAZARD IS ADDED FOR THIS REGION IN TODAY’S
OUTLOOK.
AROUND THE SAME AREA, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXTREME HEAT IS FORECAST FOR AUG 23-24.
PETS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW AN INCREASE (20-40%) IN SIGNALS FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. SHORT TERM
BIAS-CORRECTED APPARENT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS HAS ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS SHAPE
PARTIALLY OVERLAPS THE RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page