714
FXUS21 KWNC 151806
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SEPTEMBER 15 2025
SYNOPSIS: LINGERING FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER A VERY WET PERIOD THERE. CONVERSELY, RAPID ONSET DROUGHT REMAINS A RISK
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED WEEK-1
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST.
HAZARDS
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) RISK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 18 - MONDAY SEPTEMBER 22:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 23 - MONDAY SEPTEMBER 29: THE WEEK-2 FORECASTED HEIGHT
PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS WE APPROACH THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX IN THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THIS LEADS TO A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2 MEAN
HEIGHT FORECAST. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS INTO THE NORTHWEST DURING WEEK-2 BUT THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN, CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS FORCES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS MONITORING A DISTURBANCE FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING IT TOWARDS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND POTENTIALLY TOUCH OFF ANOTHER GULF
SURGE EVENT IN THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY IN THE
GUIDANCE TODAY AND NO PRECIPITATION HAZARD IS FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST.
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS
FLORIDA DURING THE WEEK-1 PERIOD. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) IS
FORECASTING UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING WEEK-1.
CORRESPONDINGLY THE NATIONAL WATER CENTER (NWC) IS MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING TO OCCUR IN THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK-1 ACROSS THIS AREA. SOME OF THIS
FLOODING MAY LINGER TO WEEK-2 AND A FLOODING POSSIBLE HAZARD REMAINS POSTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, 30 TO
60-DAY PRECIPITATION DEFICITS, AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT WEEK SUPPORTS A RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) RISK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI,
ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA. DRY VEGETATIVE FUELS IN THIS AREA TYPICALLY MEANS
INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY
WEEK-2. HOWEVER, THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE QUITE LOW AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL BE MONITORED GOING FORWARD.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. MEAN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FORECAST BY THE GEFS AND ECENS ARE AROUND 1 INCH.
THEREFORE, WHILE THESE AMOUNTS ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE HAZARDOUS AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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