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FXUS21 KWNC 291813
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SEPTEMBER 29 2025
SYNOPSIS: A RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK REMAINS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. FURTHER NORTH, ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ONE OR MORE AREAS
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TUE-SAT, OCT 7-11.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 02 - MONDAY OCTOBER 06:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 07 - MONDAY OCTOBER 13: A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FAVORED OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST AT THE OUTSET OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD MAY HELP TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS INITIAL TROUGH DISSIPATES BEFORE A
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DEVELOPS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, ONCE
AGAIN, ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE REFORECAST AND RAW ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATE THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR 3 DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 1 INCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK-2
PERIOD. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR OCT
7-11 FOR THIS REGION.
BEHIND EACH AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE, BRIEF SHOTS OF COOLER TEMPERATURES, RELATIVE
TO CURRENT WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS, ARE POSSIBLE. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
FROST AND FREEZE ADVISORIES BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE UNSEASONABLY
COLD.
TOWARDS THE END OF WEEK-2, THERE ARE INCREASED SIGNALS FROM THE GEFS
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) FOR 3 DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO EXCEED THE
85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THIS TIME, THE ECENS PET AND RAW GUIDANCE FROM EACH
MODEL IS NOT AS ROBUST. HOWEVER, THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED, AND IF BETTER
AGREEMENT IS FOUND, A HAZARD MAY WARRANTED.
IN ALASKA, PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW HAZARDS THRESHOLDS ACROSS
THE STATE. NOTABLY, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS STRONGLY FAVORED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINLAND. AT THIS TIME, THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1 INCH.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA, PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OF
SEVERAL INCHES HAVE ACCUMULATED DURING THE PAST 30-DAYS. PERCENT-OF-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION (PNP) FALLS WITHIN THE TWO LOWEST QUARTILES (1ST THROUGH 25TH
PERCENTILES AND 26TH THROUGH 50TH PERCENTILES) OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
DISTRIBUTION. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREDICTED FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS, AND
GENERALLY LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID ONSET
DROUGHT (ROD) ACROSS THIS REGION.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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