330
FXUS21 KWNC 301809
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SEPTEMBER 30 2025
SYNOPSIS: A COASTAL LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST
BRINGS AN INCREASED RISK FOR HAZARDOUS WINDS TO PARTS OF THE EAST COAST.
MEANWHILE, A LATE SEASON GULF OF CALIFORNIA SURGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST. A RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK REMAINS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. IN ALASKA, A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MAY BRING HIGH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI SEA
COASTS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA, WED-FRI, OCT 8-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST, THU-SUN, OCT 9-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI
SEA COAST, THU-SUN, OCT 9-12.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 03 - TUESDAY OCTOBER 07:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 08 - TUESDAY OCTOBER 14: BROAD MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS A FAIRLY LARGE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE CONUS WHERE
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATED A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD THE MEAN ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS, ECENS, AND
CMCE HAVE LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CONUS. IN ALASKA, STRONG
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A
CORRESPONDING DEEP TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE BY THE START OF WEEK-2. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, A COASTAL
LOW MAY DEVELOP AND TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOL (PET) FROM THE ECENS INDICATES ELEVATED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AND WIND TO EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. HOWEVER, THE GEFS AND
RAW ECENS ARE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS FEATURE. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY, HIGH
WINDS MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL COASTAL EROSION FOLLOWING HURRICANES HUMBERTO AND
IMELDA DURING WEEK-1. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR OCT
8-10. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION ONSHORE WILL REACH
HAZARDOUS CRITERIA PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
IN THE SOUTHWEST, A LATE SEASON GULF OF CALIFORNIA SURGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS MONITORING A
DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO AND THEY FORECAST A 70% CHANCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IN THE EVENT THIS SYSTEM
BOTH DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS COULD INITIATE A SURGE
EVENT INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THE ECENS PET IS VERY BULLISH ON THIS EVENT OCCURRING
WHILE THE GEFS AND CANADIAN TOOLS HAVE MORE MODEST CHANCES. A SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR OCT 9-12.
IN ALASKA, THE STRONG TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY IN WEEK-2.
THE ECENS AND GEFS PETS BOTH HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED RISK FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WOULD BE FOR COASTAL REGIONS
WHERE EROSION MAY OCCUR. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR
OCT 9-12 FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL MAINLAND ALASKA ALONG THE BERING AND CHUKCHI
SEAS.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA, PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OF
SEVERAL INCHES HAVE ACCUMULATED DURING THE PAST 30-DAYS. PERCENT-OF-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION (PNP) FALLS WITHIN THE TWO LOWEST QUARTILES (1ST THROUGH 25TH
PERCENTILES AND 26TH THROUGH 50TH PERCENTILES) OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
DISTRIBUTION. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREDICTED FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS, AND
GENERALLY LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID ONSET
DROUGHT (ROD) ACROSS THIS REGION.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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