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FXUS21 KWNC 061750
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 06 2025
SYNOPSIS: HURRICANE PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST
PACIFIC WITH A SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST TRACK. ENHANCED MOISTURE, ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TCS, IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A HEAVY RAINFALL RISK FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH OCTOBER 14 OR
15. A RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK REMAINS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. A PREDICTED STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BERING SEA AND ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN ALASKA.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, TUE, OCT 14.
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, FOUR
CORNERS REGION, AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, TUE-WED, OCT 14-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE OUTER BANKS NORTH TO LONG ISLAND, TUE-WED,
OCT 14-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, TUE-WED,
OCT 14-15.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) RISK FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE KENAI PENINSULA, PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND, AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, TUE-WED, OCT 14-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS,
TUE-WED, OCT 14-15.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 09 - MONDAY OCTOBER 13:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 14 - MONDAY OCTOBER 20: THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICT HURRICANE PRISCILLA TRACKING NORTHWEST AND JUST TO THE WEST OF
BAJA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE, AS OF 11AM PDT ON OCTOBER 6, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER STATES THAT THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF TC DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SINCE THIS POTENTIAL TC IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, ANOMALOUS LOW TO
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR THE GREATEST HEAVIEST RAINFALL RISK
AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING PRIOR TO THE START OF WEEK, OCTOBER 14.
HOWEVER, THE GEFS AND ECENS DEPICT A 500-HPA TROUGH EXTENDING BACK INTO
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS,
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS,
AND NEAR OR MORE THAN A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 0.5 INCH
IN THE ECMWF PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET), A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION, VALID THROUGH OCTOBER 15, EXTENDS EAST TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AS THE ENHANCED MOISTURE MAY INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT.
BEYOND THIS TIME, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT A RAPID DRYING TREND FOR
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS RISE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM LATE WEEK-1 TO EARLY WEEK-2. A SLIGHT RISK
OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THESE AREAS WHERE THE
ECMWF PET HAS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOWEST 15TH PERCENTILE AND AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SOME OF THE AREAS OUTLINED
WITH A COLD TEMPERATURE HAZARD HAD A FREEZE ON OCTOBER 6TH AND IT WOULD NOT BE
UNUSUAL TO HAVE A FREEZE DURING MID-OCTOBER.
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND, BUT GEFS AND ECENS EITHER FAVOR THIS SURFACE LOW EITHER WEAKENING OR
TRACKING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST BY DAY 8 (OCTOBER 14). THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION HAZARD FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC WAS DISCONTINUED AS IT TIMES OFF, BUT
AN EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT (SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC) SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM
THE OUTER BANKS NORTH TO LONG ISLAND THROUGH OCTOBER 15TH.
AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH IS LIKELY TO SPAWN MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE BERING SEA DURING THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE GEFS AND ECENS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW (SEVERAL
MEMBERS < 960-HPA) TRACKS EAST FROM THE BERING SEA INTO WESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA. BASED ON THE PREDICTED LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
POSTED FOR THE KENAI PENINSULA, PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
ON OCTOBER 14 AND 15. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS WHICH
COVERS A LARGE SPATIAL AREA FROM THE ALEUTIANS AND COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
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