063
FXUS21 KWNC 071843
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 07 2025
SYNOPSIS: TWO AREAS OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE, OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, FAVORS A TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LOWER 48 STATES FROM OCTOBER 15 TO 21. A RAPID ONSET
DROUGHT RISK REMAINS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, A PREDICTED STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BERING SEA AND ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN ALASKA.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WED, OCT 15.
RAPID ONSET DROUGHT (ROD) RISK FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE KENAI PENINSULA, PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND, AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, WED-THU, OCT 15-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE
ALEUTIANS, WED, OCT 15.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 10 - TUESDAY OCTOBER 14:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 15 - TUESDAY OCTOBER 21: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS FROM LATE
WEEK-1 THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHERE THE GEFS AND ECMWF PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) HAVE A
20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE LOWEST 15TH
PERCENTILE AND AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SOME OF THE AREAS DESIGNATED WITH A COLD
TEMPERATURE HAZARD HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED A FREEZE EARLIER THIS FALL AND IT
WOULD NOT BE UNUSUAL TO HAVE A FREEZE DURING MID-OCTOBER.
LATER IN WEEK-2 AS A 500-HPA RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND
GREENLAND, ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO A COOLING TREND WITH CONCERNS FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE EASTERN CORN BELT, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC. MOST OF
THESE AREAS TYPICALLY EXPERIENCE THEIR FIRST FREEZE IN MID TO LATE OCTOBER SO
THIS WOULD MATCH CLIMATOLOGY.
30-DAY PRECIPITATION DEFICITS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ANTECEDENT DRYNESS
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION AND DAILY
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S (DEGREES F) SUPPORT A RAPID ONSET DROUGHT RISK
FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST THROUGH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.
AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH IS LIKELY TO SPAWN MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE BERING SEA DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE GEFS AND ECENS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND REMAIN CONSISTENT INDICATING A MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE LOW
TRACKING EAST FROM THE BERING SEA INTO WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE PREDICTED LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS, A SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR THE KENAI PENINSULA, PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND,
AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA ON OCTOBER 15 AND 16. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF HIGH WINDS WHICH COVERS A LARGE SPATIAL AREA FROM THE ALEUTIANS AND
COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE WIND HAZARD IS
DISCONTINUED AFTER OCTOBER 15 SINCE THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN ONCE IT REACHES WESTERN ALASKA. BY THE END OF WEEK-2, MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER INTENSE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WHICH
COULD BRING A RENEWED RISK OF HAZARDOUS WINDS AND PRECIPITATION.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
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