389
FXUS21 KWNC 251840
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 25 2025
SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS IS FAVORED OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, ENHANCING ONSHORE FLOW AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 FAVORS ENHANCED
WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) LATE IN WEEK-1 IS FORECAST TO BRING COLDER AIR WITH IT,
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA FROM PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND SOUTHWARD, SUN-SAT, NOV 2-8.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
SOUTHWARD, SUN-SAT, NOV 2-8.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S., GREAT LAKES, AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SUN-TUE, NOV 2-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S.,
SUN, NOV 2.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 28 - SATURDAY NOVEMBER 01:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SUNDAY NOVEMBER 02 - SATURDAY NOVEMBER 08: TODAY'S WEEK-2 ENSEMBLE MEAN
500-HPA ANOMALIES FROM THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE DEPICT LARGE TROUGHS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, AND RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. WHILE THE
MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS, THERE IS A GOOD DEAL MORE SPREAD REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND AXIS OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. REGARDLESS, THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP DEPICTED FAVORS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER FROM A HAZARDS PERSPECTIVE.
MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACTIVITY FORECAST DURING THE COMING WEEK IS
FAVORED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD BY THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING SOME
RELIEF TO THE U.S. WEST COAST FROM AN EARLY-SEASON PACIFIC STORM DURING WEEK-1.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS FAVORED TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRESS
SLIGHTLY, SHIFTING THE LARGEST WEATHER IMPACTS NORTHWARD. MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST
EARLY IN WEEK-2 BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA. LATER
IN WEEK-2 FORECAST SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TO RELOAD AND BRING RENEWED STORMINESS TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS BUT MODEL SPREAD IS STILL TOO HIGH TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR WEATHER HAZARD.
WHILE DIMINISHED, CONTINUED ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE TO BRING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND
HIGH WINDS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE ALASKAN MAINLAND AND THE
PANHANDLE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE DEPICTED OVER THESE REGIONS THROUGHOUT
WEEK-2, AND THE ECMWF AND GEFS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) INDICATE AT
LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF BOTH 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED TO EXCEED
THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION AND
40MPH WIND SPEED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF ALASKA AS
FAR NORTH AS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WIND AND
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR THE REGION DESCRIBED FOR ALL OF WEEK-2.
MEANWHILE, PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PAIRED WITH RIDGING
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RESULT IN NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN A PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S., MUCH OF WHICH HAS YET TO EXPERIENCE FREEZE OR EVEN FROST CONDITIONS SO
FAR THIS SEASON. SOME OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HAS SHIFTED INTO THE WEEK-1 TIME PERIOD BUT TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BRING THE COLDEST AIR SOUTHWARD, SUGGESTING A SLIGHT
DELAY IN TIMING OF A FIRST FROST OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF
MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR
NOV 2.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AIR INCURSION ARE FAVORED TO BE QUITE STRONG,
AND MAY REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA EARLY IN WEEK-2. ECMWF AND GEFS PETS FOR 3-DAY
MAXIMUM WIND SPEED BOTH INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS TO EXCEED
THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND AT LEAST 20MPH FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, AFTER WHICH PRESSURE GRADIENTS EASE AND WINDS ARE
FAVORED TO DIMINISH. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR THE NORTHEAST
U.S., GREAT LAKES, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR NOV 2-4.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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