927
FXUS21 KWNC 261717
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 26 2025
SYNOPSIS: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NORTHEASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INCLUDING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE U.S.,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS MAY BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY, NORTHEAST,
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, NOV 6-7. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
MAY BRING HIGH WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
SOUTHWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREDICTED TO BUILD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA,
ADJACENT TO THIS LOW PRESSURE, CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR GAP WINDS
ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S., GREAT LAKES, AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MON-WED, NOV 3-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, OHIO VALLEY, NORTHEAST, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THU-FRI, NOV 6-7.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
SOUTHWARD, MON-FRI, NOV 3-7.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 29 - SUNDAY NOVEMBER 02:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY NOVEMBER 03 - SUNDAY NOVEMBER 09: MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, ALTHOUGH WITH A GREATER
AMPLITUDE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN
GENERAL THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER FROM A HAZARDS
PERSPECTIVE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO TRAVERSE THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
NORTHEAST, CONTINUING THE SLIGHT RISK FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.,
GREAT LAKES, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC,
OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NOV 3-5. THE GEFS AND ECENS
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) INDICATES AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MANY OF
THESE AREAS EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, AND 20 MPH (25 MPH ALONG COASTAL AREAS).
AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE NORTHEAST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN
MAY USHER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS DESIGNATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY,
NORTHEAST, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, NOV 6-7, WHERE THE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST
A 20% CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWEST 15TH PERCENTILE AND
28 DEG F. THE MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER (MRCC) INDICATES THAT SOME OF
THESE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS WOULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO VEGETATION FREEZE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF THE ALASKAN MAINLAND AND THE PANHANDLE. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS
MAINTAINED FOR THESE AREAS, NOV 3-7, WHERE PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF
WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 40 MPH. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL
FORMATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ADJACENT TO THIS
SURFACE LOW, WHICH COULD BE A PATTERN FAVORABLE TO GAP WINDS, WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN
YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK IS DISCONTINUED FOR TODAY GIVEN THAT DAILY AND MULTIPLE DAY
ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT REACH HAZARDS CRITERIA.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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