105
FXUS21 KWNC 271757
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 27 2025
SYNOPSIS: A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO TRAVERSE THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) FROM THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE
OF WEEK-2, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR EPISODIC HIGH WINDS OVER NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. AS THE INITIAL LOW EXITS THE U.S. AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES TO PARTS OF THE
EAST WHICH COULD EXTEND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON FOR THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC EXTENDING TOWARD THE WEST COAST MAY BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE
TO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS TO THE REGION AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CASCADES. THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO BRING HIGH WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SOUTHWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREDICTED TO
BUILD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ADJACENT TO THIS LOW PRESSURE, CONDITIONS MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR GAP WINDS ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TUE-SAT,
NOV 4-8.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES, TUE-SAT, NOV
4-8.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
TUE-SAT, NOV 4-8.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INCLUDING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY, TUE-FRI, NOV 4-7.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, OHIO VALLEY, APPALACHIANS, AND EASTERN SEABOARD, WED-THU, NOV 5-6.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
SOUTHWARD, TUE-THU, NOV 4-6.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 30 - MONDAY NOVEMBER 03:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY NOVEMBER 04 - MONDAY NOVEMBER 10: MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF
WEEK-2, GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY
FAVORING A SETUP CONDUCIVE TO A MORE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN THE ADDITION OF MULTIPLE HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GEFS AND ECENS SHOW ENHANCED CHANCES FOR INTEGRATED
VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) VALUES EXCEEDING 250 KG/MS FROM THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE
OF WEEK-2, WITH THE ECENS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL THAN THE GEFS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NOV 4-8, WHERE MULTIPLE MODEL PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS
(PETS) SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND 2 INCHES, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY
UNCALIBRATED MODEL GUIDANCE. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS DESIGNATED FOR HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR THE SAME PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, A SLIGHT
RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE SAME PERIOD, WITH PETS SHOWING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 35 MPH.
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A SECONDARY LOW MAY TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THESE STORMS COULD BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF HIGH WINDS TO
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS INDICATED FOR
NORTHEASTERN CONUS INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY, NOV 4-7.
THE GEFS AND ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) INDICATES AT LEAST A 20%
CHANCE OF THESE AREAS EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, AND 20 MPH (25 MPH ALONG COASTAL AREAS).
AS THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE NORTHEAST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN
MAY USHER IN A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE GEFS HAS DECREASED ITS
SIGNAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WHILE THE ECENS HAS
INCREASED ITS SIGNAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY ONLY A SLIGHT
RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS DESIGNATED TODAY. IF THERE IS
INCREASED AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS TOMORROW, THEN A MODERATE RISK MAY BE
DESIGNATED. THE SLIGHT RISK IS EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY, APPALACHIANS, AND EASTERN SEABOARD, NOV
5-6. THE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
THE LOWEST 15TH PERCENTILE AND 32 DEG F. THE MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER
(MRCC) INDICATES THAT SOME OF THESE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS WOULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
VEGETATION FREEZE. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR THE
SOUTHEAST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF THE ALASKAN MAINLAND AND THE PANHANDLE. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS
MAINTAINED FOR THESE AREAS, NOV 4-6, WHERE PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF
WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 40 MPH. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL
FORMATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ADJACENT TO THIS
SURFACE LOW, WHICH COULD BE A PATTERN FAVORABLE TO GAP WINDS, WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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