299
FXUS21 KWNC 281836
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 28 2025
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC IS ANTICIPATED
TO BRING ENHANCED MOIST FLOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN IS
PREDICTED TO BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE NORTHERN CASCADES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. A FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, NOV 5-7. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PREDICTED TO FORM OVER THE BERING SEA MAY SUPPORT HIGH WINDS, NOV 5-6.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WED-FRI, NOV 5-7.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH MOUNTAINS, WED-FRI, NOV
5-7.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
WED-FRI, NOV 5-7.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WED-FRI,
NOV 5-7.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THU-FRI, NOV 6-7.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND AND THE
SOUTHEAST, WED-THU, NOV 5-6.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 31 - TUESDAY NOVEMBER 04:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 05 - TUESDAY NOVEMBER 11: A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH
SUPPORTING ENHANCED MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. A
MODERATELY PROGRESSIVE 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEEK-2, WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CONUS.
PREDICTED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE GEFS AND ECENS INDICATE INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR INTEGRATED
VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) VALUES EXCEEDING 250 KG/MS FROM THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE
OF WEEK-2. THIS TRANSLATES TO THE GEFS AND ECMWF BASED PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES
TOOLS (PETS) ALSO INCREASING ITS SIGNAL FOR RELATED IMPACTS. A SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, NOV 5-7, WHERE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) SHOW AT LEAST A
20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND 2 INCHES (1 INCH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA), WHICH IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY UNCALIBRATED MODEL GUIDANCE. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS
DESIGNATED FOR HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH MOUNTAINS FOR THE
SAME PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE SAME PERIOD, WITH PETS
SHOWING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND
35 MPH. PREDICTED CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF LANDSLIDES.
A SURFACE LOW IS PREDICTED TO FORM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND POTENTIALLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANTICIPATED ADJACENT TO THIS LOW OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
AND EASTERN CONUS, TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS IN
SOME AREAS. SLIGHT RISKS OF HIGH WINDS ARE DESIGNATED FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, NOV 5-7, AS WELL AS AN AREA EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, NOV
6-7. PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH (25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS).
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE PATTERN THAT IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR A COLD
AIR MASS TO SINK SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN CONUS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE, THE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
DISCONTINUED IN
TODAY’S OUTLOOK.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF A
LASKA, WHICH COULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOU
THERN COAST OF THE ALASKAN MAINLAND AND THE PANHANDLE. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WIN
DS IS MAINTAINED FOR THESE AREAS, NOV 5-6, WHERE PETS SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE
OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 40 MPH.
FORECASTER: MELISSA O
U
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