339
FXUS21 KWNC 011902
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 01 2026
SYNOPSIS: THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AMONG THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS DURING WEEK-2. IN GENERAL, THE ECENS, GEFS, AND
CMCE, SUPPORT MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) AND MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE MID-LEVEL
LOW WILL BRING ELEVATED CHANCES OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND
HEAVY SNOW FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN
ALASKA, THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE BRINGING WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE STATE BY WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE,
AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, FRI-TUE, JAN 9-13.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, SAT-MON, JAN 10-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, SUN-TUE, JAN 11-13.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES, FRI-SUN, JAN
9-11.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY JANUARY 04 - THURSDAY JANUARY 08:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY JANUARY 09 - THURSDAY JANUARY 15: MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS GENERALLY
PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING IS FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GEFS IS
A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THESE CIRCULATION FEATURES THAN THE ECENS AND CMCE. A
LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE ALSO FORECAST
OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, WITH THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER CLOSE
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ENHANCES CHANCES FOR HIGH
WINDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE ECENS
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THESE CHANCES WHILE THE
GEFS PET IS MORE SUBDUED BUT IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN. THEREFORE, A
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS (>85TH HISTORICAL PERCENTILE AND >20 MPH) IS POSTED
FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES, JAN 9-11.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREDICTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE OF GULF MOISTURE. AS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CONUS, A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW IS MOST LIKELY
TO FORM IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT THE MODELS DISAGREE
ON ITS EXPECTED POSITION. THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN, THE BIG PICTURE
STILL FOCUSES ON A DEVELOPING LOW WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW TO MANY AREAS.
THE GEFS SOLUTION IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN THE ECENS SOLUTION, WITH THE
GEFS FORECASTING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 10 (JAN 11), WHEREAS THE ECENS
ALREADY HAS MOVED THE FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THAT TIME. UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE TIMING OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO AFFECT HOW LONG THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND SUBSEQUENT LAKE-EFFECT SQUALLS WILL INFLUENCE PORTIONS
OF THE EAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM JAN 9-13, WHERE THE
GEFS PET DEPICTS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF THE 85TH HISTORICAL
PERCENTILE AND ACTUAL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1-INCH. THE ECENS PET ALSO PREDICTS
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN THE 85TH PERCENTILE, BUT SHOWS A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE RAW ECENS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND DISTRIBUTION ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEFS SOLUTION.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES, SNOW IS
THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS MAY BE THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF
TODAY'S HAZARDS OUTLOOK. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDE THE PREDICTED SPATIAL
DISTRIBUTION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW. THE GEFS PREDICTS ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THE ECENS, BEING THE FASTER SOLUTION, FOCUSES THE SNOW
FARTHER EAST, PRIMARILY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RAW SNOW TOTAL PREDICTIONS
FROM BOTH MODELS (INCLUDING THE AI VERSION OF THE ECENS) ARE IN THE 4-6 INCH
RANGE OVER THIS WIDESPREAD REGION, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, JAN 10-12. A SECOND SLIGHT
RISK AREA FOR HEAVY SNOW IS INDICATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, JAN
11-13.
NO TEMPERATURE HAZARDS HAVE BEEN POSTED ON TODAY'S MAP. HOWEVER, THE GEFS MODEL
IN PARTICULAR, IS FORECASTING AN ARCTIC INCURSION INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK-2, IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM
SYSTEM. THE GEFS SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND HIGH PRAIRIES. THE
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW (JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS) IS DIRECTLY
FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES, WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES OF -10 DEG F AND WIND CHILLS IN EXCESS OF
-20 DEG F. THE ECENS IS NOT QUITE AS COLD, AND KEEPS THE COLDEST AIR JUST NORTH
OF THE BORDER. AS THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY GEFS-BASED AND IS PREDICTED TO OCCUR
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK-2, IT WAS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE INCLUSION
OF A HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURE SHAPE ON THE MAP TODAY, AND REASSESS THE MODEL
GUIDANCE TOMORROW.
IN ALASKA, THE ECENS CONTINUES TO HAVE HIGH CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW THE 15TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
HOWEVER, THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS RAPIDLY EVOLVING OVER ALASKA, WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES, RELATIVE TO MUCH OF DECEMBER, OVERSPREADING MAINLAND
ALASKA. THEREFORE NO TEMPERATURE HAZARDS ARE POSTED TODAY.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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