703
FXUS21 KWNC 022005
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 02 2026
SYNOPSIS: THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AMONG THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS DURING WEEK-2. IN GENERAL, THE ECENS, GEFS, AND
CMCE, SUPPORT MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, AND MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE IS PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). AHEAD OF THE
MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION, HEAVY SNOW, AND HIGH WINDS FOR DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. IN THE WEST, PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN FAVORS GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN ALASKA, THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE BRINGING WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE STATE.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST,
SAT-MON, JAN 10-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, SAT-MON, JAN 10-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND UPPER
MID-ATLANTIC, SAT-MON, JAN 10-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SAT-FRI,
JAN 10-16.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY JANUARY 05 - FRIDAY JANUARY 09:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY JANUARY 10 - FRIDAY JANUARY 16: DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK-2 FORECAST PERIOD, A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE ECENS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION (I.E., FARTHER
EAST) AND THE GEFS BEING THE SLOWEST SOLUTION. THREE WEATHER-RELATED HAZARDS
ARE POSTED IN CONNECTION WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONE HAZARD IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST, JAN 10-12. THIS AREA IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GEFS AND
ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) AND RAW PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
PREDICTED BY THESE SAME ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS. INITIALLY, THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST-ORIENTED REGION OF FAVORED HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BECOME
MORE WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED AS ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE SECOND HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE AND WAKE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS VALID FOR THE SAME PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, NORTHEAST, AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC. IN GENERAL, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN THE 85TH HISTORICAL PERCENTILE AND 20
MPH.
THE THIRD HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS HEAVY SNOW. THE TIMING
DETAILS ARE DEPENDENT ON THE PREDICTED SPEED OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND
AS NOTED EARLIER THE ECENS SOLUTION IS FASTER THAN THE GEFS AND THE CMCE.
CONSIDERING UNCALIBRATED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM GEFS AND ECENS MODEL GUIDANCE, AND
FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z ITERATIONS OF THE AI-VERSION OF THE ECENS (ECENS-AI),
APPROXIMATELY 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW IS PREDICTED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
SNOW IS POSTED FOR JAN 10-12. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES.
OVER THE WEST, A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OF AIR AROUND THIS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUPPORTS SANTA ANA-TYPE DOWNSLOPE WINDS THAT MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE INTERIOR TO THE PACIFIC COAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF
EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM JAN 10-16.
TYPICALLY, THIS ACTIVITY WOULD ELEVATE THE RISK OF FIRE WEATHER. HOWEVER, THE
PRECIPITATION RECEIVED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE PREVIOUS TWO-WEEK
PERIOD (DEC 18-31, 2025) WAS ABOUT 4 TIMES THEIR CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL HELP TO
MINIMIZE ANY RISK OF WILDFIRES.
NO TEMPERATURE HAZARDS HAVE BEEN POSTED ON TODAY'S MAP. THE VERY COLD GEFS
SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY, AND THE SLIGHTLY “MILDER” ECENS SOLUTION, HAVE EASED
TODAY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. YESTERDAY'S GEFS SUPERENSEMBLE SEA-LEVEL
PRESSURE GUIDANCE INDICATED FLOW DIRECTLY FROM THE NORTH POLE ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 DEG F, AND WIND
CHILL VALUES IN EXCESS OF -20 DEG F. HOWEVER, TODAY'S SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS SUPERENSEMBLE HAS ALTERED THAT FLOW PATTERN IN TWO WAYS.
FIRST, SOME OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS DISPLACED INTO EASTERN CANADA. SECOND, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FAVORS FLOW FROM THE MILDER
EAST PACIFIC AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSLOPE OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES,
HELPING TO MODERATE (TO SOME EXTENT) THE BITTER COLD AIR BEFORE IT REACHES THE
NORTH-CENTRAL STATES.
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TODAY,
AS WELL AS SUBHAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, NO HAZARDS ARE POSTED FOR ALASKA.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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