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FXUS21 KWNC 071923
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 07 2026
SYNOPSIS: AT THE START OF WEEK-2, A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND WEST COAST INCREASES THE ODDS FOR PERIODIC HIGH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, WITH SANTA ANA WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. MEANWHILE, EAST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER, EPISODES OF
STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. POSSIBLE SURFACE LOWS AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTS TRAVERSING THE EAST COAST AND EASTERN CANADA AND U.S. MAY BRING HIGH
WINDS TO THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST AND HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO BUILD BEHIND THESE DISTURBANCES, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN LATE IN THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA, WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ALASKA COMBINED WITH ADJACENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON MAY
BRING HIGH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. A KONA LOW
MAY BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND PERIODIC HIGH WIND GUSTS TO PARTS OF HAWAII.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FROM ARIZONA THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, THU-SAT, JAN 15-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ROCKIES AND
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, THU-WED, JAN 15-21.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IN PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST,
FRI-TUE, JAN 16-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST, APPALACHIANS, AND LEE OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO, THU-SUN, JAN 15-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN, TUE-WED, JAN 20-21.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND OF
ALASKA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, THU-SAT, JAN 15-17.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY JANUARY 10 - WEDNESDAY JANUARY 14:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 15 - WEDNESDAY JANUARY 21: MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS
FOR WEEK-2 INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC,
ALASKA AND WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE GEFS AND ECENS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED HEIGHT
PATTERN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WHEREAS THE CMCE IS WEAKER. THIS MID-LEVEL
PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO RETROGRADE OVER TIME THROUGHOUT WEEK-2.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES WESTWARD, WITH
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND IS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SANTA ANA
WIND EPISODES FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA. THE ECENS PET SHOWS AT LEAST A
40% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND
20 MPH IN THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA, ALTHOUGH THE GEFS PET DOES NOT SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. UNCALIBRATED ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIMILAR DIFFERENCE. GIVEN THESE
DIFFERENCES ONLY A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS CONTINUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FROM ARIZONA THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, JAN 15-17. FORTUNATELY, THE RECENT
WETNESS THERE SHOULD QUELL ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANTICIPATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND A SERIES OF
ADJACENT SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT INCREASED CHANCES FOR EPISODES
OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONALLY, A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER CENTRAL U.S.
FROM CENTRAL CANADA, FURTHER SUPPORTING HIGH WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS MAINTAINED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ROCKIES AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, JAN 15-21. MULTIPLE PETS
SHOW AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 25
MPH IN THE DESIGNATED RISK AREA.
ACROSS THE EAST, MULTIPLE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS THE BORDER OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. / CANADA. THESE SERIES OF LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SUPPORT A CONTINUED
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST, JAN
16-20. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE TIMING,
LOCATION, AND EVOLUTION OF THESE SURFACE LOWS, THUS A BROAD AREA AND PERIOD IS
HIGHLIGHTED WITH THIS RISK. THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECENS SHOW AT LEAST A 50%
CHANCE OF 10M WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS. THESE DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO BRING
HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND APPALACHIANS INCLUDING HEAVY
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW TO THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE HEAVY SNOW HAZARD
HAS BEEN EXPANDED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY TO INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST, JAN 15-18.
THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS AND GEFS INDICATE SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 2 TO 4
INCHES FOR SOME RISK AREAS OVER A 3-DAY PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. THIS COULD BRING COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD THE END OF WEEK-2. A SLIGHT RISK OF
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN, JAN 20-21. MULTIPLE MODEL PETS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT INDICATING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
THE LOWEST 15TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND -10 DEG F.
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEMS TO
AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THESE STORMS. IN GENERAL, THERE IS INCREASED
POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY PRECIPITATION, SNOWFALL, AND HIGH WINDS. A
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS (INCLUDING GAP WINDS LOCALLY) IS DESIGNATED FOR
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, JAN 15-17. MULTIPLE PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% OF
WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 40 MPH IN THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK
AREA.
A KONA LOW MAY IMPACT PARTS OF HAWAII DURING WEEK-2. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION, EVOLUTION, AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE
STATE WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN SUM FOR WEEK-2. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE
PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HIGH WINDS, AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FOR
PARTS OF THE STATE.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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