016
FXUS21 KWNC 091935
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 09 2026
SYNOPSIS: ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THERE MAY BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WINDS LINGERING FROM THE END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2.
STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
NORTHERN PLAINS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. POSSIBLE SURFACE LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE EAST COAST AND EASTERN CANADA AND U.S. MAY
BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC AND HEAVY
SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND APPALACHIANS.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD BEHIND THESE DISTURBANCES,
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INITIALLY FOR THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN, AND GULF COAST SHIFTING
EAST TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. THERE CONTINUES TO BE INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR KONA LOWS BRINGING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND PERIODIC HIGH WIND
GUSTS TO PARTS OF HAWAII, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THIS POTENTIAL.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST FROM ARIZONA THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, SAT-SUN, JAN 17-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ROCKIES AND
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, SAT-MON, JAN 17-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IN PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST, AND
MID-ATLANTIC, SUN-TUE, JAN 18-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, NORTHEAST,
APPALACHIANS, AND LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO, SUN-TUE, JAN 18-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN, SUN-TUE, JAN 18-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST,
SUN-MON, JAN 18-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST,
TUE-FRI, JAN 20-23.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY JANUARY 12 - FRIDAY JANUARY 16:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY JANUARY 17 - FRIDAY JANUARY 23: THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ACROSS MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2
INDICATING AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGING (TROUGHING) OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
AND WESTERN (EASTERN) CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BY MID WEEK-2,
HOWEVER, THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FAVORS A QUICKER TRANSITION TO MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST, WHILE THE ECENS HOLDS ON TO THE RIDGE LONGER BEFORE
DEVELOPING A WEAKER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE CMCE
SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS SOLUTION.
THE SURFACE PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WITH INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST MAY LINGER FROM THE
END OF WEEK-1 INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND POTENTIALLY
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SANTA ANA WIND EPISODES FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA AT
THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS CONTINUED FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FROM ARIZONA THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, JAN 17-18, PRIMARILY BASED
ON PATTERN RECOGNITION AND RECENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) HAVE DECREASED ITS SIGNAL FOR HIGH WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR THIS REGION. FORTUNATELY, THE RECENT WETNESS THERE SHOULD REDUCE WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANTICIPATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND A SERIES OF
ADJACENT SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND RESULTANT INCREASED CHANCES FOR
EPISODES OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONALLY, A
SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER CENTRAL
U.S. FROM CENTRAL CANADA, FURTHER SUPPORTING HIGH WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS DESIGNATED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ROCKIES AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, JAN 17-19. THE PETS INDICATE
AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND 20 MPH, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY RECENT UNCALIBRATED ENSEMBLE
WIND SPEED GUIDANCE.
ACROSS THE EAST, MULTIPLE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS THE BORDER OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. / CANADA. THESE SERIES OF LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SUPPORT INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF ENHANCED WINDS AND SNOWFALL FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE
TIMING, LOCATION, AND EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH TO INCLUDE
MORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, IN ADDITION TO THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST, VALID
JAN 18-20. THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND
SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH. BASED ON INCREASING SIGNALS
FOR HEAVY SNOW IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW (JAN 18-20) IS
EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND
LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE GEFS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) PET NOW
INDICATES AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY SWE TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE IN THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA. THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS AND GEFS
INDICATE SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR SOME RISK AREAS OVER A
3-DAY PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST SOUTHWARD TO THE
GULF COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME. COLD
ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE EASTERN
CONUS DURING WEEK-2. SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INITIALLY
DESIGNATED FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
(JAN 18-20) AND THE GULF COAST (JAN 18-19), SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST, JAN
20-23. MULTIPLE MODEL PETS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AT LEAST A
20% CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWEST 15TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND -10 DEG F (WIND CHILLS BELOW -20 DEG F) ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HAZARD AREAS, AND FREEZING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GULF
COAST.
THE SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND OF
ALASKA IS DISCONTINUED IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK AS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF HAZARDOUS
WIND HAS SHIFTED INTO THE WEEK-1 PERIOD.. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE GEFS AND ECENS IN TERMS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE, WHEREAS
THE GEFS MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. THE ECENS SOLUTION FAVORS A MUCH COLDER PATTERN
THAN THE GEFS FOR WEEK-2. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NO ASSOCIATED HAZARDS
ARE SPECIFIED FOR ALASKA AT THIS TIME.
A SERIES OF KONA LOWS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF HAWAII DURING WEEK-2. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION, EVOLUTION, AND MAGNITUDE OF
ANY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION
OVER MOST OF THE STATE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN SUM FOR WEEK-2. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HIGH WINDS, AND SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS FOR PARTS OF THE STATE.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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