236
FXUS21 KWNC 111845
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 11 2026
SYNOPSIS: A MID-LEVEL LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, SNOW, AND WIND IN THE REGION. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS
COLD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF WEEK 2, THE
OVERALL PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO BECOME LESS CERTAIN OVER TIME. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF KONA LOWS IMPACTING PARTS OF HAWAII, WHICH
COULD BRING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONAL HIGH WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THIS HAWAIIAN WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WESTERN GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST,
MON-FRI, JAN 19-23.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST,
TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, SUN-TUE, JAN 18-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IN PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST, AND
MID-ATLANTIC, MON-TUE, JAN 19-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, MON, JAN
19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, MON-WED, JAN 19-21.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY JANUARY 14 - SUNDAY JANUARY 18:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY JANUARY 19 - SUNDAY JANUARY 25: EARLY IN WEEK 2, AN AMPLIFIED AND
PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN IS EXPECTED, WITH STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG
MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS PATTERN FORECASTS MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WESTERN CONUS, WITH CORRESPONDING TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, THE 0Z GEFS FORECASTS A TRANSITION TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, THE ECENS FAVORS A
WEAKER RIDGE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH CONTINUED WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THE ECENS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF WEEK-2 IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) BASED ON THE
ECENS FAVORS 30-40% CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW THE 15TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF WEEK-2. THE 0Z GEFS
BASED TOOL, FAVORING A STRONGER RIDGE, HAS WEAKER PROBABILITIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. AS THE 6Z GEFS HAS A COLDER
SOLUTION FOR WEEK-2, A BROAD SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN AND BACK INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS FOR JAN 19-23. A
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO FORECAST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND FLORIDA FOR JAN 19-20.
IN THIS REGION, THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA, REDUCING THE RISK FOR HAZARDOUS COLD BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS, SNOW AND
WIND REMAIN A POSSIBILITY EARLY IN WEEK-2. RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS POOR
BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE FOR A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW INTO THE MAJOR
NORTHEAST METROPOLITAN AREAS.THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW REMAINS
POSTED FOR JAN 19. DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER
THE LAKES AND UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THROUGH JAN 21. A SLIGHT
RISK OF STRONG WINDS REMAINS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC FOR
JAN 19-20 ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO INDICATE INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH INCREASING RETURN
FLOW FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF WEEK-2. HOWEVER, THE
CURRENT WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES.
THEREFORE, NO CORRESPONDING HAZARD IS POSTED AT THIS TIME BUT THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE GEFS AND ECENS IN TERMS OF THE
PLACEMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR ALASKA. THE ECENS FAVOR THE RIDGE TO BE
FURTHER WEST OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA, WHILE THE GEFS WOULD BRING THIS
FEATURE OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE HAS LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. THE ECENS SOLUTION
WOULD FAVOR A MUCH COLDER PATTERN THAN THE GEFS FOR WEEK-2. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES NO ASSOCIATED HAZARDS ARE SPECIFIED FOR ALASKA AT THIS TIME.
A SERIES OF KONA LOWS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF HAWAII DURING WEEK-2. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION, EVOLUTION, AND MAGNITUDE OF
ANY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION
OVER MOST OF THE STATE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEEK-2. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
INCLUDE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HIGH WINDS, AND SIGNIFICANT WAVES.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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