369
FXUS21 KWNC 121902
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 12 2026
SYNOPSIS: A MID-LEVEL LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW AT TIMES DURING WEEK-2. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD,
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF KONA LOWS IMPACTING PARTS OF
HAWAII, WHICH COULD BRING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONAL HIGH WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER, THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THIS HAWAIIAN WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WESTERN GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST,
TUE-WED, JAN 20-21 AND SAT-MON, JAN 24-26.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST,
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, TUE-WED, JAN 20-21.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, TUE-MON, JAN 20-26.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST, THU-MON, JAN 22-26.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 15 - MONDAY JANUARY 19:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY JANUARY 20 - MONDAY JANUARY 26: THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE DYNAMICAL ENSEMBLE MODELS FOR AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT PATTERN DURING WEEK-2. AT THE ONSET OF WEEK-2, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE EXITING THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING PROGRESSING THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
ALSO FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND ALASKA. AS THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN PROGRESSES, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. IN THE
WEST, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND CMCE WHICH HAS AMPLIFIED
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO THE ECENS FAVORING NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SETTLES INTO BROAD BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS BY THE END OF WEEK-2.
EARLY IN WEEK-2, WITH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, THERE IS A
BROAD RISK FOR HAZARDOUS COLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS HIGHLIGHT BROAD 30-40% CHANCES OF
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 15TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE DURING THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL COLDEST TIME OF YEAR. UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE INDICATES
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN WEEK-2 TO BE 10-15 DEGF BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AFTER THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF WEEK-2, MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ENDING THE THREAT
FOR HAZARDOUS COLD. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, TOOLS INDICATE ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES ONCE AGAIN BUT IS NOT FAVORED TO DIG AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE PRECEDING WAVE OF COLD AIR. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, JAN 20-21. A SECOND
HAZARDOUS AREA IS POSTED FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND
NORTHEAST, JAN 20-21 AND JAN 24-26.
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES OF COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO BE A COMBINATION OF PURE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
SNOW IS POSTED FOR DOWNWIND AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FOR ALL OF WEEK-2.
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
AMERICA IS FORECAST TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE,
AND OHIO VALLEYS. WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, THIS COULD LEAD
TO ONE OR MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN. PETS
FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS INDICATE ENHANCED CHANCES FOR 3 DAY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS TO EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE FOR BOTH DAYS 10-12 AND 12-14. THEREFORE,
A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE REGION FOR JAN
22-26.
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE GEFS AND ECENS IN TERMS OF THE
PLACEMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR ALASKA. THE ECENS FAVOR THE RIDGE TO BE
FURTHER WEST OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA, WHILE THE GEFS WOULD BRING THIS
FEATURE OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE HAS LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. THE ECENS SOLUTION
WOULD FAVOR A MUCH COLDER PATTERN THAN THE GEFS FOR WEEK-2. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES NO ASSOCIATED HAZARDS ARE SPECIFIED FOR ALASKA AT THIS TIME.
A SERIES OF KONA LOWS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF HAWAII DURING WEEK-2. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION, EVOLUTION, AND MAGNITUDE OF
ANY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION
OVER MOST OF THE STATE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEEK-2. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
INCLUDE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HIGH WINDS, AND SIGNIFICANT WAVES.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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