624
FXUS21 KWNC 131919
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 13 2026
SYNOPSIS: A WEAKENING AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LINGERING THREAT OF MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS THIS MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS, THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF
MULTIPLE WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST, ANOMALOUSLY COLD
WINTER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, ALONG WITH ONE OR
MORE SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND LOW ELEVATION HEAVY SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
DURING THE PERIOD. IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF KONA
LOW DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PARTS OF HAWAII, WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONAL HIGH WIND GUSTS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST, WED, JAN 21.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN, NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES, THU-TUE, JAN 22-27.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, WED-TUE, JAN 21-27.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN, GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES, THU-TUE, JAN 22-27
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST, THU-TUE, JAN 22-27.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, FRI-SAT,
JAN 23-24.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST, WED-SUN, JAN 21-25.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS,
MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
THU-SUN, JAN 22-25.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY JANUARY 16 - TUESDAY JANUARY 20:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY JANUARY 21 - TUESDAY JANUARY 27: HEADING INTO WEEK-2, THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT
FORECASTS FEATURING ANOMALOUS RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER EASTERN U.S. AND CANADA. AS MUCH OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY IN WEEK-2, DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A RETROGRESSION OF THE MEAN TROUGHING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
AND EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MANY
PARTS OF THE EAST, HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS SHIFTS
WESTWARD WHERE THERE IS MORE MODEL SUPPORT FOR ANOMALOUS TROUGHING ALOFT OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS ALSO INCREASES THE RISK OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO POTENTIALLY TRIGGER HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY
SNOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK.
TIED TO THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH EARLY IN WEEK-2, RAW TOOLS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS FROM DAY 7 TO DAY 8. AS A RESULT, THE SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS DISCONTINUED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., HOWEVER A
CORRESPONDING TEMPERATURE HAZARD REMAINS POSTED FOR JAN 21 OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS WHERE THE ANOMALOUS COLD MAY BE SLOW TO MODERATE. WITHIN THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA, BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PET)
MAINTAIN ELEVATED CHANCES 20-40% FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE
15TH PERCENTILE AND BELOW -10 DEG F. AS THE MEAN TROUGHING SHIFTS WESTWARD
AFTER DAY 9 (JAN), THE ACCOMPANYING TEMPERATURE RESPONSES ARE WELL REFLECTED IN
THE PETS WITH EMERGING COLD SIGNALS IN PERCENTILE SPACE FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. COMPARED TO THE GEFS, THE ECMWF PET IS STRONGER WITH THE
HAZARDOUS COLD POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BUT
BOTH PETS AGREE IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD THREAT, WITH BOTH
ENSEMBLES FEATURING MORE MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE ENSEMBLES ALSO DEPICT REBUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SUGGESTIVE OF ANOTHER SHOT
OF ANOMALOUS COLD AIR LATER IN WEEK-2. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN TO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR JAN 22-27.THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SHOTS OF COLD AIR OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS ALSO FAVORS A COMBINATION OF PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW
REMAINS POSTED DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR ALL
OF WEEK-2.
DUE TO BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES IN REGARDS TO
ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST LATE NEXT WEEK, SLIGHT
RISK AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE POSTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKIES,
GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FOR JAN 22-27. THIS IS SUPPORTED
IN THE GEFS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) PET AND RAW SNOW TOOLS, WHICH DEPICT AN
UPTICK IN CHANCES FOR AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE WEST DURING WEEK 2. IN ADDITION, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS ALSO POSTED
FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST AT THE BASE AND AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS
WHERE PETS SHOW AT LEAST 20% CHANCES FOR WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE.
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITION TOWARDS MORE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING (RIDGING) THE
WESTERN (EASTERN) CONUS SUPPORTS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF ROCKIES
WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO INCREASE RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE DETAILS OF TIMING AND STORM TRACK REMAIN UNCLEAR BASED
ON THE DAILY ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, ONE OR MORE SURFACE LOWS ARE FAVORED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAW AND CALIBRATED
PETS SHOWING THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH PETS ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A SLIGHT RISK
DESIGNATION, DEFERENCE IS GIVEN TO THE MORE RECENTLY SKILLFUL RAW PRECIPITATION
TOOLS OVER THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY, AND A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS POSTED WHERE BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF INDICATE >40% CHANCES FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING AN INCH, WITH HIGHEST DAILY AMOUNTS OCCURRING ON DAYS 10 AND 11 (JAN
23-24). WITHIN THIS MODERATE RISK AREA, LOCALIZED FLASH OR SMALL STREAM
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK AREA REMAINS
POSTED FOR JAN 21-25, WHERE PETS DEPICT 20-30% CHANCES FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 1 INCH. WITH ANOMALOUS COLD AIR EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, THE ENHANCED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF ANY TRANSIENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FROM THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THERE IS
GREATEST CONVERGENCE OF EVIDENCE IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES WITH 10-30%
CHANCES FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES. SOME DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS
FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERLY STORM TRACK WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH,
HOWEVER ANY FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE CORRESPONDING SNOW HAZARD WILL BE
REVISITED IN UPCOMING HAZARD OUTLOOKS.
NO HAZARDS ARE ISSUED OVER ALASKA. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GEFS IN REGARDS TO STRONG RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND. THIS PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A TILT IN THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. SHOULD THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND SHIFT
WESTWARD, THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CROSS POLAR FLOW WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND ANY TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING FAVORED UNDERNEATH STRONG RIDGING FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC, ONE OR MORE KONA LOWS MAY DEVELOP AND IMPACT PARTS OF HAWAII
DURING WEEK-2. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION,
EVOLUTION, AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE STATE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEEK-2. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HIGH WINDS,
AND SIGNIFICANT WAVES.
FORECASTER: NICK NOVELLA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page