312
FXUS21 KWNC 161921
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 16 2026
SYNOPSIS: A DEVELOPING AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) INCREASES THE RISK OF MULTIPLE WEATHER
RELATED HAZARDS INCLUDING ANOMALOUSLY COLD WINTER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, AND HIGH WIND AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MAY
POTENTIALLY TRIGGER HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND LOW ELEVATION HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD. IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, THERE IS AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF KONA LOW DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PARTS OF HAWAII,
WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONAL HIGH WIND GUSTS
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES, SAT-MON, JAN 24-26.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN, NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST,
SAT-WED, JAN 24-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, SAT-FRI, JAN 24-30.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, SAT-WED, JAN 24-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE NORTHEAST,
SAT-MON, JAN 24-26.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS, SAT-WED, JAN 24-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST, SAT-MON, JAN 24-26.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY JANUARY 19 - FRIDAY JANUARY 23:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY JANUARY 24 - FRIDAY JANUARY 30: MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, WITH FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALASKA, AND A BROAD TROUGH
DOWNSTREAM WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES STRETCHING ALL ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADA BORDER, AND WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. HOWEVER, AS THE FORECAST PERIOD PROGRESSES SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE GEFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND WEST COAST, WITH THE GEFS BUILDING A STRONGER RIDGE CENTERED ON THE
COAST, WHILE THE ECWMF BUILDS A WEAKER RIDGE A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST. THE
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FURTHER EAST, FAVORING A PERSISTENT TROUGH
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA, WHICH PAIRED WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE PROVIDES A
GOOD SETUP FOR AN INCURSION OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION.
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, STRONG MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC AIR IS FAVORED TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES EARLY IN WEEK-2, AND THE . PROBABILISTIC EXTREME TOOLS (PETS) FROM THE
GEFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE COLD POTENTIAL, THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD WITH REGARD TO
JUST HOW FAR THE COLDEST AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD. WHILE THE GEFS LIMITS 40%
CHANCES OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE MUCH CLOSER
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER COMPARED TO ECMWF, IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE 20% CHANCES IN
THE GEFS EXTEND WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS REPRESENTS CONTINUED SUPPORT AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE SOUTHERN
REACH OF ANOMALOUS COLD IN THE ECMWF PET WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS COLD
IS INDICATED. A SLIGHT RISK AREA OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
MAINTAINED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AS WELL AS THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, VALID JAN 24-28, WITH A SHORTER DURATION AS THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EASTWARD BY MIDDLE OF WEEK-2 AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE WEST COAST, RESULTING IN WEAKER SIGNALS FROM THE PETS.. THE COLDEST SIGNALS
IN THE PETS REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES, WITH THE ECMWF BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH RISK HAZARD DESIGNATION, NOW
DEPICTING 50-60% CHANCES FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 15TH
PERCENTILE. HOWEVER, THE WARMER GEFS SHOWS A MORE LIMITED AREA WITH 40%
CHANCES, SO A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS ISSUED
FOR JAN 24-26, AND NO HIGH RISK HAZARD IS ISSUED. DESPITE THIS WEAKER SIGNAL,
THE GEFS HAS BEEN TRENDING COLDER, AND THE UNCALIBRATED ECMWF CONTINUES TO
DEPICT 30-40% CHANCES FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL BELOW -40DEG F. THEREFORE
THE MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES VALID JAN 24-26 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE SHOTS OF COLD AIR OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER, THE COMBINATION OF PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND/OR LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES, SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION OF A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR ALL OF WEEK-2.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF
ROCKIES AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE WEEK-1 PERIOD.
GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS IN DAILY PRECIPITATION TOOLS DEPICTING ENHANCED TOTALS
OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SIGNAL FROM THE PETS
HAS REDUCED SOMEWHAT, BUT CONTINUES TO DEPICT BROAD COVERAGE OF AT LEAST 20%
CHANCES OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS REMOVED IN THE
UPDATED OUTLOOK, BUT THE BROADER SLIGHT RISK AREA REMAINS POSTED FOR JAN 24-26.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ANOMALOUS COLD AIR EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, ANY ENHANCED MOISTURE BEING ENTRAINED INTO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALONG THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TRACKING SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH THE UNCALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS
ARE NOT QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REACHING HAZARDS CRITERIA, A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST FOR JAN 24-26 BASED
ON THE PREDICTED BAROCLINICITY IN THE REGION AND SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALSO EXPANDED
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR, WITH COVERAGE
ALSO INCLUDING THE OZARKS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST BASED ON INCREASED SNOWFALL SIGNALS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM TRACK.
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG/NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE SLIGHT
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW RISK AREAS.
BASED ON CONTINUED AGREEMENT AMONG THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES IN
REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST, SLIGHT RISKS OF HIGH ELEVATION HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS REMAIN POSTED
FOR THE REGION, VALID THROUGH JAN 28 BEFORE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LATER IN WEEK-2. BOTH THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE)
AND WIND PETS MAINTAIN INCREASED CHANCES FOR VALUES EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE ECMWF INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) TOOL
DEPICTS AN INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) POTENTIAL LATE IN WEEK-2 WHICH IS
SUPPORTED IN THE ECMWF PET WITH 20% CHANCES OF 3-DAY AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE AND 2 INCHES FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WESTERN WASHINGTON DURING
DAYS 12-14. THE GEFS IVT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNAL, BUT THE GEFS PET IS
VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT. AS A RESULT, NO ASSOCIATED HAZARDS ARE
POSTED, BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE REASSESSED AS ANY AR RELATED RISKS MAY COME
INTO BETTER FOCUS.
NO HAZARDS ARE ISSUED OVER ALASKA. THE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND INTO THE MAINLAND REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
A TILT IN THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND SHIFT WESTWARD, THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CROSS POLAR
FLOW WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND ANY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING FAVORED UNDERNEATH STRONG RIDGING FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC, ONE OR MORE KONA LOWS MAY DEVELOP AND IMPACT PARTS OF HAWAII
DURING WEEK-2. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION,
EVOLUTION, AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE STATE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEEK-2. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HIGH WINDS,
AND SIGNIFICANT WAVES.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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