401
FXUS21 KWNC 182005
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 18 2026
SYNOPSIS: AN OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS FAVORED TO BE
UNDERWAY AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS COLD FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS COMBINE TO INDUCE HIGH WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. INCREASING LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS FAVORED TO PRODUCE SLIGHT TO
MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) ACTIVITY INTO MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND NORTHEAST U.S. AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO
VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC, MON-THU, JAN 26-29.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, MON-FRI, JAN 26-30.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND, MON-FRI, JAN 26-30 (DATES NOT SHOWING UP ON MAP.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
MON-SUN, JAN 26-FEB 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS, MON-SUN, JAN 26-FEB 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MON-SUN, JAN
26-FEB 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE MAINLAND, MON-FRI, JAN 26-30.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S.,
MON-FRI, JAN 26-30.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY JANUARY 21 - SUNDAY JANUARY 25:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY JANUARY 26 - SUNDAY FEBRUARY 01: MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH AMERICA REGION HAVE BEEN PLAGUED WITH
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL SPREAD AS AN APPARENT SHIFT IN THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SETUP SEEMS TO BE IMMINENT. PERSISTENT HIGH LATITUDE RIDGING OVER THE BERING
SEA AND ALASKA IS FAVORED TO GIVE WAY TO A MORE CANONICAL BERING LOW WITH DEEP
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. DOWNSTREAM,
MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATE MODERATE RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES, AS WELL AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SETUP FAVORS A SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE INTO THE COUNTRY’S MIDSECTION, BRINGING POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS COLD TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING
THIS POTENTIAL, ALTERNATELY INDICATING PROBABILITIES SOMETIMES EXCEEDING 60% OF
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE NEARLY THROUGH THE END
OF JANUARY, WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD FOR THE OHIO
VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST U.S. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS FAVORED TO PAIR WITH THE STRONG COLD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, ENHANCING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY PUSHING APPARENT
TEMPERATURES BELOW HAZARDOUS CRITERIA. FURTHER SOUTH, TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS
10F ARE INDICATED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TENNESSEE AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS FOR JAN 26-29, AND A SLIGHT RISK IS
POSTED FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48 EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS, VALID JAN 26-30.
AS PERSISTENT HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALASKA IS FAVORED
TO GIVE WAY TO TROUGHING AT MID-LEVELS, MODEL ENSEMBLE DEPICT THE EMERGENCE OF
A ROBUST BERING LOW, WHICH IS FAVORED TO THEN ADVECT COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE STRONGEST AR ACTIVITY TO MOVE
INTO THE CANADA COASTAL REGION BUT ALSO DEPICT A VERY WIDE FIELD OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC, RESULTING IN A POTENTIAL FOR
ASSOCIATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR BOTH SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE U.S. PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS BOTH INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND FOR THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS FOR ALL OF WEEK-2. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
HIGH WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS WELL. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND THE SOUTHERN COAST AS FAR WEST AS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, AND A SLIGHT
RISK OF HIGH WIND OVERLAPS THIS AND CONTINUES FURTHER WEST TO INCLUDE THE KENAI
PENINSULA, BOTH VALID JAN 26-30. MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY INDICATE BETTER
PERSISTENCE OF AR CONDITIONS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THEREFORE A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON, A SLIGHT RISK OF
HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL REGIONS FROM PUGET SOUND TO CAPE MENDOCINO, AND A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADES ARE POSTED, ALL VALID FOR ALL OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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