268
FXUS21 KWNC 191904
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 19 2026
SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAKS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH LATE JANUARY. FROM JANUARY 27 TO 29, MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST ON JANUARY 28 OR 29. DURING WEEK-2,
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA FROM LATE JANUARY
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, TUE-THU, JAN 27-29.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S., TUE-FRI, JAN 27-30.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S., TUE-MON, JAN 27-FEB 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, TUE-FRI, JAN
27-30.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON, TUE-MON, JAN 27-FEB 2.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 22 - MONDAY JANUARY 26:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY JANUARY 27 - MONDAY FEBRUARY 02: A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION (AO) HAS BECOME WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH
POSITIVE (NEGATIVE) 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE HIGH (MIDDLE) LATITUDES.
THE GEFS AND ECENS DEPICT THIS -AO PEAKING AT -3 TO -4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS UNUSUALLY STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE AO WILL PROMOTE A
SERIES OF ARCTIC HIGHS TO SHIFT SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) THROUGH LATE JANUARY. THE ECENS REMAINS THE COLDEST
MODEL SOLUTION. THE MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE HAZARDS WERE BASED ON A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECENS AND GEFS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) WITH
THE HIGH AND MODERATE RISKS CORRESPONDING TO GREATER THAN A 60% AND 40-60%
CHANCE, RESPECTIVELY, THAT TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE
JANUARY AND ALSO REACH THE NWS COLD ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH RISK OF MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS VALID FROM JANUARY 27-29 AND IS CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY, WHILE A LARGE MODERATE RISK (JANUARY 27-30) EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST SOUTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SUBZERO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY
OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH A
FREEZE/FROST RISK FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ECENS PET IMPLIES
THAT THERE IS MORE THAN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF NEAR RECORD OR RECORD LOWS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE ECENS AND GEFS PETS SUPPORT A SLIGHT
RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
THROUGH FEBRUARY 2ND, BUT THE ANOMALOUS COLD IS LIKELY TO SHIFT MORE TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST LATER IN WEEK-2.
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH COULD RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST ON JANUARY 28 OR 29. THE ECENS HAS BEEN
QUITE CONSISTENT ON A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE
WEST-TO-EAST SPREAD IS LARGE AMONG ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH ANYWHERE FROM
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. FROM JANUARY
27 TO 30, A PREDICTED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH
WINDS FOR THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THESE GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. LOOKING FURTHER OUT TO THE BEGINNING OF
FEBRUARY, A WEAKENING WEST-BASED NEGATIVE NAO FAVORS ANOTHER WINTER STORM RISK
FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THESE WINTER STORM RISKS FOR THE EAST COAST
FROM JANUARY 27 TO FEBRUARY 2 WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND A HEAVY SNOW HAZARD
MAY BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOMALOUS 500-HPA
TROUGHING OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA SOUTH TO NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON. BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS (20-40% CHANCE OF 3-DAY AMOUNTS TO
EXCEED THE 15TH PERCENTILE) AND THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE PATTERN, THE SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION GOES THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2. THE PLACEMENT
OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL DETERMINE HOW WET
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS DURING WEEK-2. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST THE PAST FEW DAYS WHICH LEADS TO A DECREASING CHANCE
OF HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST COAST.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
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