273
FXUS21 KWNC 201916
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 20 2026
SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAKS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH LATE JANUARY. BY THE END OF THE MONTH, THE MOST
ANOMALOUS COLD IS FORECAST TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR OFFSHORE
OF THE EAST COAST LATER NEXT WEEK. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THE CHANCE
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA FROM LATE JANUARY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, WED-FRI, JAN 28-30.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S., WED-SUN, JAN 28-FEB 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S., WED-TUE, JAN 28-FEB 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, WED-THU, JAN
28-29.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON, WED-TUE, JAN 28-FEB 3.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY JANUARY 23 - TUESDAY JANUARY 27:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY JANUARY 28 - TUESDAY FEBRUARY 03: A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION (AO) HAS BECOME WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH
POSITIVE (NEGATIVE) 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE HIGH (MIDDLE) LATITUDES.
THE GEFS AND ECENS DEPICT THIS -AO PEAKING AT -4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS UNUSUALLY STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE AO WILL PROMOTE A SERIES OF
ARCTIC HIGHS TO SHIFT SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) THROUGH LATE JANUARY. ALTHOUGH THE ECENS REMAINS THE COLDEST MODEL
SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEK, THE ECENS AND GEFS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS)
ARE CONVERGING ON THEIR PROBABILITIES OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE
15TH PERCENTILE. A HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, VALID FOR
JANUARY 28-30, IS POSTED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG WITH PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST WHERE THE ECENS AND GEFS PETS HAVE NEAR A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE AND CLOSE TO
NWS COLD ADVISORY CRITERIA. DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A SWATH OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC PRECEDING WEEK-2, THE COLDER ECENS
PET WAS PREFERRED FOR THE SOUTHEAST. ON JANUARY 30, THE ECENS PET DEPICTS MORE
THAN A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES F AS
FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALSO, THIS TOOL INDICATES A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. BASED ON THE PET GUIDANCE, A MODERATE RISK OF HAZARDOUS COLD
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH FEBRUARY 1. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
DESIGNATED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
WEEK-2, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY THE
BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH COULD RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST ON JANUARY 28 OR 29. THE ECENS IS THE MOST
BULLISH WITH AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
TO NO SUPPORT FROM THE 0Z GEFS SOLUTION. REGARDLESS OF ANY LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT, A PREDICTED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH
WINDS FOR THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH JANUARY 29. THESE GUSTY WINDS
COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. LOOKING FURTHER OUT TO THE
BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY, THE PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH COUPLED WITH A WEAKENING
WEST-BASED NEGATIVE NAO FAVORS ANOTHER WINTER STORM RISK FOR THE EAST. THESE
WINTER STORM RISKS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND A HEAVY SNOW HAZARD MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOMALOUS 500-HPA
TROUGHING OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA SOUTH TO
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON. BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS (20-40% CHANCE OF
3-DAY AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE) AND THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE
PATTERN, THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION GOES THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
WEEK-2. LATER IN WEEK-2, THE ECENS (WETTER) AND GEFS (DRIER) DIVERGE ON WHETHER
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO AFFECT CALIFORNIA. THESE LARGE MODEL
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE THE DESIGNATION OF ANY HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION FOR
CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
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