595
FXUS21 KWNC 221925
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 22 2026
SYNOPSIS: EXTREME COLD IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. DURING THE FINAL WEEK OF JANUARY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE FURTHER EXACERBATED BY ANY
RESIDUAL IMPACTS FROM THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND INCLUDING REDUCED
SNOW MELT, POWER OUTAGES, AND CONTINUED STRAIN ON HEATING RESOURCES. EFFORTS
SHOULD BE MADE TO PREPARE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD WEATHER. IN
ADDITION TO THE COLD, THERE IS AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND THE END OF THE MONTH WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW. HOWEVER, THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THE
CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA FROM LATE
JANUARY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC,
AND NORTHEAST, FRI-SUN, JAN 30-FEB 1.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S., FRI-MON, JAN 30-FEB 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, FRI-SAT, JAN 30-31.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S., FRI-WED, JAN 30-FEB 4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, FRI-SAT, JAN
30-31.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, FRI-THU, JAN
30-FEB 5.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, FRI-THU, JAN 30-FEB 5.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY JANUARY 25 - THURSDAY JANUARY 29:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY JANUARY 30 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 05: A MAJOR SNOW AND ICE STORM IS
FORECAST ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, WHICH
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ANY SNOW PACK. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE COLD PATTERN IS THE
RESULT OF A STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (-AO) WHICH LEADS
TO POSITIVE (NEGATIVE) 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE HIGH (MIDDLE) LATITUDES.
THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE -AO, NOW
DEPICTING IT PEAKING AT GREATER THAN -5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL OUTBREAKS OF ARCTIC AIR ARE
PREDICTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY INTO AT LEAST EARLY FEBRUARY.
AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE ECMWF AND GEFS PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES (60-80 PERCENT) FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 15TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE EAST EARLY IN WEEK-2, WITH THE ECMWF PET SLIGHTLY MORE EXPANSIVE.
UNCALIBRATED ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT BRUTALLY COLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH
TEENS AND 20S DEG F EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10 DEG F ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN, WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES MORE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. GIVEN EXCELLENT TOOL
AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN, A HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDS
FROM THE OZARKS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST, JAN 30-FEB 1, WITH INCREASED SNOW COVER
FAVORING A COLDER OUTCOME. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE HIGH RISK IS EXTENDED
ACROSS THE OZARKS BASED ON THE ENHANCED SIGNAL IN THE PETS, AND INTO PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES ARE MORE LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
NWS COLD HAZARD CRITERIA. A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH FEB 2. THERE REMAINS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF A FREEZE/FROST AS FAR SOUTH
AS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SINCE WIND CHILL VALUES COULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY DROP INTO
THE 30S DEG F EVEN IN SOUTH FLORIDA, THIS PART OF THE SUNSHINE STATE WAS
INCLUDED IN THE MODERATE RISK. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS POSTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
GREAT LAKES, JAN 30-31, WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES OF -20 TO -40 DEG F ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE HIGH DESCENDS OUT OF CANADA. HOWEVER, RETURN FLOW
FAVORS A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES OVER THESE AREAS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD WITH DECREASING SIGNAL IN THE PETS. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS DESIGNATED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH FEB 4, ALTHOUGH MANY OF THESE AREAS MAY FINALLY
ALSO BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD THE END OF WEEK-2.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DUE TO UPSTREAM ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH JAN 31. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THESE GUSTY
WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH THE PREDICTED ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD
RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNALS FOR SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST, PARTICULARLY IN THE RECENT 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS
AND 0Z ECMWF. THE PREVAILING COLD AIR MASS MAY FAVOR SNOW AND ICE INTO PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH, WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW A CONCERN ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH WITH MANY INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS FAVORING
MORE OFFSHORE TRACKS. NO RELATED HAZARDS ARE POSTED TODAY, BUT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERSISTENT AND
ANOMALOUS 500-HPA TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THIS AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW AND
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA. BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS (20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF 3-DAY
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE) AND THE PERSISTENT
LONGWAVE PATTERN, THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION GOES THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE (WETTER) AND GEFS (MUCH DRIER) DIVERGE
ON WHETHER ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO AFFECT CALIFORNIA DURING WEEK-2 AS
WELL. THESE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE THE DESIGNATION OF ANY HAZARDOUS
PRECIPITATION FOR CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
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