657
FXUS21 KWNC 231948
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 23 2026
SYNOPSIS: EXTREME COLD IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE FURTHER EXACERBATED BY ANY
RESIDUAL IMPACTS FROM THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND INCLUDING REDUCED
SNOW MELT, POWER OUTAGES, AND CONTINUED STRAIN ON HEATING RESOURCES. EFFORTS
SHOULD BE MADE TO PREPARE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD WEATHER. IN
ADDITION TO THE COLD, THERE IS AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HOWEVER, THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THE CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
HIGH WINDS FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA FROM LATE JANUARY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
FEBRUARY.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST, GULF COAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC, SAT-SUN, JAN 31-FEB 1.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., SAT-MON, JAN 31-FEB 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S., SAT-WED, JAN 31-FEB 4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, SAT,
JAN 31.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, SAT-FRI, JAN 31-FEB 6.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
SAT-FRI, JAN 31-FEB 6.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY JANUARY 26 - FRIDAY JANUARY 30:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY JANUARY 31 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 06: A MAJOR SNOW AND ICE STORM IS
FORECAST ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, WHICH
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ANY SNOW PACK. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE COLD PATTERN IS THE
RESULT OF A STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (-AO) WHICH LEADS
TO POSITIVE (NEGATIVE) 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE HIGH (MIDDLE) LATITUDES.
THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE -AO PEAKING AT AROUND -5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE,
ADDITIONAL OUTBREAKS OF ARCTIC AIR ARE PREDICTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
JANUARY INTO AT LEAST EARLY FEBRUARY.
THE ECMWF AND GEFS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PROBABILITIES (60-80 PERCENT) OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 15TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS,
SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN WEEK-2, WITH THE ECMWF PET BEING SLIGHTLY
MORE EXPANSIVE. UNCALIBRATED ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT BRUTALLY COLD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES, WITH TEENS AND 20S DEG F EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. GIVEN EXCELLENT TOOL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN, A HIGH RISK OF
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS DESIGNATED FROM EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, GULF
COAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC, JAN 31-FEB 1, WITH INCREASED SNOW COVER FAVORING A
COLDER OUTCOME. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE HIGH RISK IS EXTENDED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES ARE LIKELY TO
EXCEED NWS COLD ADVISORY CRITERIA BASED ON THE UNCALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES. A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCLUDES MUCH OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FEB 2. THERE REMAINS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF A FREEZE/FROST AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SINCE WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE 30S DEG F EVEN IN SOUTH FLORIDA,
THIS PART OF THE SUNSHINE STATE WAS INCLUDED IN THE MODERATE RISK. INCREASED
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 FAVOR LOWER WIND CHILL
VALUES WITH THE MODERATE RISK INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
AND LOWER NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH THE LARGEST NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
NOW FAVORED LATER IN WEEK-1 RESULTING IN REDUCED COVERAGE OF THE MODERATE AND
HIGH RISKS ACROSS THIS REGION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK OF
MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS DESIGNATED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH FEB 4. RETURN FLOW FAVORS QUICKLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES, WITH ALSO A DECREASING SIGNAL IN THE
PETS FOR ANOMALOUS COLD ACROSS THE EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AROUND THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 DUE TO UPSTREAM ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SUPPORTS A SLIGHT
RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON JAN 31. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, THESE GUSTY WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH THE PREDICTED
ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL
VALUES. SEVERAL PREVIOUS DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS DEPICT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST
AROUND THE JAN 31-FEB 2 TIMEFRAME. THE PREVAILING COLD AIR MASS WOULD FAVOR
SNOW AND ICE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH, WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW A CONCERN
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THIS WOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
PROLONGED COLD CONDITIONS AND RESIDUAL IMPACTS FROM THE UPCOMING STORM THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH WITH MANY INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS, AS
WELL AS THE 0Z AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF, FAVORING MORE OFFSHORE TRACKS AND
NO SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER. NO RELATED HAZARDS ARE POSTED TODAY, BUT THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERSISTENT AND
ANOMALOUS 500-HPA TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THIS AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW AND
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS (20-40 PERCENT
CHANCES OF 3-DAY AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE) AND THE
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE PATTERN, THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION GOES
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2. FURTHER SOUTH, THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES REGARDING MORE RIDGING AND A DRIER PATTERN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
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