020
FXUS21 KWNC 241919
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 24 2026
SYNOPSIS: BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY, ALTHOUGH THE MOST EXTREME COLD IS
PREDICTED TO SUBSIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE FURTHER EXACERBATED BY ANY
RESIDUAL IMPACTS FROM THE ONGOING WINTER STORM INCLUDING REDUCED SNOW MELT,
POWER OUTAGES, AND CONTINUED STRAIN ON HEATING RESOURCES. EFFORTS SHOULD BE
MADE TO PREPARE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BRUTALLY COLD WEATHER. ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THE CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST, SUN, FEB 1.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA, SUN-MON, FEB 1-2.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. (EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES, AND UPPER
MIDWEST), SUN-WED, FEB 1-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, SUN-WED, FEB 1-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
SUN-WED, FEB 1-4.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR TUESDAY JANUARY 27 - SATURDAY JANUARY 31:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 01 - SATURDAY FEBRUARY 07: A MAJOR SNOW AND ICE STORM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT A BROAD SWATH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, WHICH
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ANY SNOW PACK. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE COLD PATTERN IS THE
RESULT OF A STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (-AO) WHICH LEADS
TO POSITIVE (NEGATIVE) 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE HIGH (MIDDLE) LATITUDES.
THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE -AO PEAKING AT AROUND -5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE,
ADDITIONAL OUTBREAKS OF ARCTIC AIR ARE PREDICTED TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FEBRUARY.
THE ECMWF AND GEFS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PROBABILITIES (60-80 PERCENT) OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 15TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF
THE HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON DAY-8 (FEB 1). A MODERATE
RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC, AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH FEB 2. EXTREME COLD IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES IN THE PETS ALLOWING THE THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BE DISCONTINUED AFTER FEB 4.
THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z GEFS DEPICTS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA COMPARED TO THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND THESE AREAS
ARE REMOVED FROM THE HIGH RISK GIVEN THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY, ALTHOUGH COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED. THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASED SIGNAL
FOR HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES EXTENDING INTO EASTERN TEXAS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST, AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S DEG F MORE LIKELY FURTHER INLAND. THE GEFS IS GENERALLY
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ECMWF AND THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE
CORRESPONDING PETS, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES (ABOVE 60 PERCENT) FOR REACHING
THE LOWEST 15TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE IN THE GEFS PET. AS A RESULT, THE
HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURE RISKS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY GIVEN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TO REACH
NWS COLD CRITERIA. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST EARLY IN WEEK-2 WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR
REACHING NWS COLD CRITERIA. HOWEVER, THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IN THE 0Z
ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW HINTS OF TROUGHING RELOADING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS TOWARD THE END OF WEEK-2 AND A POTENTIAL FOR A
RENEWED ROUND OF COLDER TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
CPC WEEK 3-4 OUTLOOK WHICH DEPICTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST CONTINUING INTO MID-FEBRUARY.
RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS FAVOR
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MANY AREAS DURING WEEK-2.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A POTENTIAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
EAST COAST EARLY IN WEEK-2. WHILE THERE CONTINUE TO BE WEAK SIGNALS FOR A
COASTAL LOW IN SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
(UNDER 20 PERCENT CHANCE) TO ISSUE A RELATED HAZARD. HOWEVER, INTERESTS ARE
ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS IN CASE CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS THIS POTENTIAL
SHIFTS INTO THE WEEK-1 PERIOD GIVEN THE HIGH SENSITIVITY TO ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
OR WINTRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE CURRENTLY ONGOING STORM.
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERSISTENT AND
ANOMALOUS 500-HPA TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PACIFIC. THIS AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW
AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS
(20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING
THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE) AND THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE PATTERN, THE
SLIGHT RISKS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS ARE VALID THROUGH FEB 4.
LATER IN WEEK-2, RIDGING IS FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA FAVORING A RELATIVELY DRIER PATTERN.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
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