331
FXUS21 KWNC 252007
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 25 2026
SYNOPSIS: BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY, ALTHOUGH THE
MOST EXTREME COLD IS PREDICTED TO SUBSIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. DANGEROUSLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE FURTHER
EXACERBATED BY ANY RESIDUAL IMPACTS FROM THE ONGOING WINTER STORM INCLUDING
REDUCED SNOW MELT, POWER OUTAGES, AND CONTINUED STRAIN ON HEATING RESOURCES.
EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO PREPARE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTER COLD
WEATHER. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THE CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
HIGH WINDS FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY,
SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC, MON-TUE, FEB 2-3.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND PARTS
OF THE LOWER LAKES REGION, MON-SUN, FEB 2-8.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION, NEW YORK STATE, AND MOST OF NEW ENGLAND, SAT-SUN, FEB 7-8.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, THE
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND COAST, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, MON-THU, FEB 2-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, THE SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND COAST, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, MON-THU, FEB 2-5.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY JANUARY 28 - SUNDAY FEBRUARY 01:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY FEBRUARY 02 - SUNDAY FEBRUARY 08: IMPACTS FROM A MAJOR SNOW AND ICE
STORM MAY CONTINUE FOR A BROAD SWATH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK, BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, WHICH
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ANY SNOW PACK. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE COLD PATTERN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (-AO) WHICH
LEADS TO POSITIVE (NEGATIVE) 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE HIGH (MIDDLE)
LATITUDES. THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE -AO PEAKING AT
AROUND -5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL OUTBREAKS OF ARCTIC AIR ARE PREDICTED TO CONTINUE INTO AT
LEAST EARLY FEBRUARY.
THE ECMWF AND GEFS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODERATE PROBABILITIES (40-60 PERCENT) OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
THE 15TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GENERALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND
MID-ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE MODERATE RISK OF MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FEB 2-3 (DAYS 8-9). A LARGER SLIGHT RISK AREA OF
FAVORED MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC,
AND PARTS OF THE LOWER LAKES REGION, FOR THE DURATION OF WEEK-2 (FEB 2-8). DUE
TO THE DIFFICULTY OF ADEQUATELY CAPTURING A RAPIDLY CHANGING SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ON A SINGLE MAP DURING WEEK-2, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE BROAD REGIONS
OF SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS FOR MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DO NOT MEAN
THAT EVERY PART OF THE ENCLOSED AREAS WILL MEET THE COLD CRITERIA FOR THE TIME
PERIOD DENOTED. IT IS MORE ACCURATE TO STATE THAT THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION (WARMING) OF
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THESE REGIONS. BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD, THE COLDEST ANOMALOUS AIR IS PREDICTED TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF REGION/FLORIDA. THERE IS ONE CAVEAT THOUGH; LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD (FEB 7-8), SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA IS PREDICTED BY THE
MODELS TO DRAW DOWN MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WARRANTS A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SPECIFIED REGION.
RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS FAVOR
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS DURING WEEK-2.
NEAR THE START OF WEEK-2, THE 0Z ECENS PREDICTS A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM
WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA, AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS, WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING OFFSHORE. THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS VERSION OF THIS STORM TAKES A SIMILAR PATH BUT IS MUCH
SLOWER, WITH MORE ENERGY BEING PREDICTED IN A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN WEEK-2. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS BEFORE IT SHIFTS INTO
THE WEEK-1 FORECAST DOMAIN.
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERSISTENT AND
ANOMALOUS 500-HPA TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE
ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND COAST, AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS (20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF 3-DAY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE) AND THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE PATTERN, THE SLIGHT RISKS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS ARE VALID THROUGH FEB 5. LATER IN WEEK-2, RIDGING
IS FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA FAVORING A
RELATIVELY DRIER PATTERN.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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