427
FXUS21 KWNC 262009
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 26 2026
SYNOPSIS: BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY, ALTHOUGH THE
MOST EXTREME COLD IS PREDICTED TO SUBSIDE BY THE EARLY PART OF WEEK-2.
REGARDLESS, DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST
AND THIS WILL BE FURTHER EXACERBATED BY ANY RESIDUAL IMPACTS FROM THE RECENT
WINTER STORM (WHICH IS STILL AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND) INCLUDING REDUCED SNOW
MELT, POWER OUTAGES, AND CONTINUED STRAIN ON HEATING RESOURCES. EFFORTS SHOULD
BE MADE TO PREPARE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTER COLD WEATHER. ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THE CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS FOR
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, TUE, FEB 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND
THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, TUE-WED, FEB 3-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST OF AN APPROXIMATE LINE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, TUE-MON,
FEB 3-9.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, THE
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND COAST, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, TUE-FRI, FEB 3-6.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, THE SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND COAST, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, TUE-FRI, FEB 3-6.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 29 - MONDAY FEBRUARY 02:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 03 - MONDAY FEBRUARY 09: IMPACTS FROM A MAJOR SNOW AND ICE
STORM MAY CONTINUE FOR A BROAD SWATH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK, BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, WHICH
WILL HELP MAINTAIN ANY SNOWPACK. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE COLD PATTERN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (-AO) WHICH
LEADS TO POSITIVE (NEGATIVE) 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE HIGH (MIDDLE)
LATITUDES. THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE -AO PEAKING AT
AROUND -5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL OUTBREAKS OF ARCTIC AIR ARE PREDICTED TO CONTINUE INTO AT
LEAST EARLY FEBRUARY.
THE ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PET) SHOWS MODERATE PROBABILITIES
(40-60 PERCENT) OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 15TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SOUTHEAST, FEB 3. THE GEFS
PET SUPPORTS ONLY SLIGHT PROBABILITIES (20-40 PERCENT). WITH THE ARCTIC AIR
PREDICTED TO PERSIST, THE ECENS PET IS THOUGHT TO BE THE BETTER BET, AND
THEREFORE A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR THIS
AREA AND DATE. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS DEPICTED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, FEB 3-4.
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK-2 FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A
REINFORCING BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK (4 INCHES OR GREATER) DEPOSITED
FROM THE MAJOR WINTER STORM SYSTEM NOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SNOWPACK WILL HELP TO EXTEND THE DURATION OF UNUSUALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION, WITH THE GEFS BRINGING IN THE ANOMALOUSLY
COLD AIR FASTER THAN THE ECENS, THOUGH BOTH FORECAST THIS SCENARIO POSSIBLY
OCCURRING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF WEEK-2.
RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS FAVOR
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS DURING WEEK-2.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS PREDICTED BY TODAY'S 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS MODEL TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA LATER IN WEEK-1, AND PARALLEL MUCH OF
THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN WEEK-2. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME HOW
CLOSE THE STORM TRACK WILL GET TO THE COAST, AS THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE NOT YET
COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST, AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE WEEK-1 TIME FRAME.
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PERSISTENT AND
ANOMALOUS 500-HPA TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE
ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND COAST, AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. BASED ON UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES AND THE PETS FROM THESE
MODELS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS (>85TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE) HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS FROM FEB 3-6. LATER
IN WEEK-2, 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE, AS AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWESTWARD AND
RETROGRADES INTO THE REGION, FAVORING A DRIER PATTERN.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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