071
FXUS21 KWNC 271957
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 27 2026
SYNOPSIS: BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) INTO EARLY FEBRUARY, ALTHOUGH THE MOST EXTREME
COLD IS PREDICTED TO SUBSIDE JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
REGARDLESS, DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST
AND THIS WILL BE FURTHER EXACERBATED BY ANY RESIDUAL IMPACTS FROM THE RECENT
WINTER STORM INCLUDING REDUCED SNOW MELT, POWER OUTAGES, AND CONTINUED STRAIN
ON HEATING RESOURCES. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO PREPARE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF BITTERLY COLD WEATHER. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THE CHANCE OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WED-TUE, FEB 4-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC COAST,
FRI-MON, FEB 6-9.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, THE SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND COAST, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WED-FRI, FEB 4-6.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, THE
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND COAST, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WED-FRI, FEB 4-6.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY JANUARY 30 - TUESDAY FEBRUARY 03:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 04 - TUESDAY FEBRUARY 10: DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK,
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WHICH WILL
HELP MAINTAIN ANY SNOWPACK. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE COLD PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (-AO) WHICH LEADS TO
POSITIVE (NEGATIVE) 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE HIGH (MIDDLE) LATITUDES.
THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE -AO CURRENTLY PEAKING AT
AROUND -5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL OUTBREAKS OF ARCTIC AIR
ARE PREDICTED TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY FEBRUARY.
A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR MOST AREAS EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. ARCTIC AIR ALREADY FORECAST
ACROSS THE EAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PREDICTED BY THE ECENS AND GEFS
MODELS TO BE REINFORCED BY A RENEWED BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THAT OVERSPREADS THIS
AREA AROUND MID-LATE WEEK-2. SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK (4 INCHES OR GREATER)
DEPOSITED FROM THE MAJOR WINTER STORM SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM ABOUT INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SNOWPACK WILL HELP TO EXTEND THE DURATION OF UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR
WEST TO BRING THE ARCTIC AIR, WITH THE GEFS BRINGING AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF HAZARDOUS COLD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE THE ECENS HAS
THIS BOUNDARY A BIT FARTHER EAST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. EARLY IN WEEK-2, THE GEFS
AND ECENS PETS, DEPICT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE
(28 DEG F) AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA STATE LINE. THE +10 DEG F
LINE IS FORECAST (20 PERCENT CHANCE) AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER, AND AS FAR
EAST AS THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NEW YORK CITY TO
WASHINGTON, D.C.
THERE ARE NO HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAZARDS INDICATED FOR THE LOWER 48 STATES
TODAY, THOUGH AN AREA BEING WATCHED IS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION INTO AN ARCTIC AIR MASS. THE GEFS PREDICTS
SOMEWHAT GREATER TOTALS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION COMPARED TO THE ECENS, BUT THE PREDOMINANCE OF
VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASSES AND RELATED OFFSHORE FLOW SUPPORTS A DRIER SCENARIO
FOR THE TIME BEING. AS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA AND OFF/UP THE EAST COAST, IT MAY BE A MATTER OF TIME
BEFORE THEIR ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION SHIELDS OVERLAP WITH THE SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A BRIEF INTERLUDE BETWEEN ARCTIC SURGES.
RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS FAVOR
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS DURING WEEK-2.
THE AMPLIFIED, MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
RETROGRADING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK-2. THIS
SCENARIO, IN ADDITION TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA, IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN FALLING 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND THE INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THOUGH THIS
INTRUSION IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR JUST AFTER THE END OF WEEK-2.
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PERSISTENT AND
ANOMALOUS 500-HPA TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE
ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND COAST, AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. BASED ON UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES AND THE PETS
FROM THESE MODELS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS (>85TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE) HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS FROM FEB 4-6. LATER
IN WEEK-2, 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE, AS AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWESTWARD AND
RETROGRADES INTO THE REGION, FAVORING A DRIER PATTERN.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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