611
FXUS21 KWNC 281912
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 28 2026
SYNOPSIS: BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) INTO EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH THE MOST EXTREME COLD
PREDICTED TO SUBSIDE BY THE END OF WEEK-1. A RETURN OF HAZARDOUS COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
IMPACTS COULD BE EXACERBATED BY ANY RESIDUAL IMPACTS FROM THE RECENT STORM AND
ANY POSSIBLE UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER INCLUDING REDUCED SNOW MELT, POWER
OUTAGES, AND CONTINUED STRAIN ON HEATING RESOURCES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD FOR HIGH WINDS DURING WEEK-2 FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THAT COULD COMPOUND IMPACTS AND LOWER WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO PREPARE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BITTERLY COLD WEATHER. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THE CHANCE OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, SAT-WED, FEB 7-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC COAST,
FRI-MON, FEB 6-9.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, THE SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND COAST, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THU-SAT, FEB 5-7.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, THE
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND COAST, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THU-SAT, FEB 5-7.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY JANUARY 31 - WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 04:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 05 - WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 11: DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK,
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WHICH WILL
HELP MAINTAIN ANY SNOWPACK. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE COLD PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (-AO) WHICH LEADS TO
POSITIVE (NEGATIVE) 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE HIGH (MIDDLE) LATITUDES.
THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE AO REMAINING NEGATIVE INTO EARLY
FEBRUARY, WHICH IS FAVORED TO BECOME LESS NEGATIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO ADDITIONAL OUTBREAKS OF ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING INTO
AT LEAST EARLY FEBRUARY, ALTHOUGH BECOMING SOMEWHAT LESS NEGATIVE THAN THE
CURRENT STATUS.
A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR MOST AREAS EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A BRIEF MODERATION OF THE
EXTREME COLD IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 BEFORE REDEVELOPING BY DAY
10 (FEB 7), PEAKING ON DAY 11. MODELS SHOW TEMPERATURES NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES DECREASING TOWARDS THE END OF WEEK-2 AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD OFF THE CONUS. SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK (4 INCHES OR GREATER) DEPOSITED
FROM THE RECENT MAJOR WINTER STORM SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM ABOUT INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SNOWPACK WILL HELP TO EXTEND THE DURATION OF UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS. THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MULTIPLE MODEL PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) INDICATING MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWEST 15TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, INITIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO VALLEY FEB 7 EXPANDING EASTWARD TO A BROADER
AREA EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY FEB 8. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS DESIGNATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, FEB 7-11.
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS MAY TRAVERSE ALONG THE EASTERN U.S/CANADIAN BORDER AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THESE LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MAY BRING HIGH
WINDS TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR
THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC COAST, FEB 6-9. THE ECENS PET SHOWS AT
LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH,
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY INCREASED CHANCES IN THE ENSEMBLES OF GUSTS EXCEEDING THIS
SPEED. WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD LEAD TO LOWER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PERSISTENT AND
ANOMALOUS 500-HPA TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE
ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND COAST, AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. BASED ON UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES AND THE PETS
FROM THESE MODELS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS REMAIN
POSTED FOR THESE AREAS FROM FEB 5-7. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE PET
INDICATING 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 2
INCHES, WITH RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS
RECEIVING GREATER THAN 3 TO 4 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD.
LATER IN WEEK-2, 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE, AS AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWESTWARD AND
RETROGRADES INTO THE REGION, FAVORING A DRIER PATTERN.
MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR KONA LOWS APPROACHING HAWAII DURING
WEEK-2, WHICH COULD BRING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO PARTS
OF THE STATE. THE CPC 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR HAWAII, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (50-60% CHANCE) FOR
THE WESTERN ISLANDS.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page