405
FXUS21 KWNC 302105
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 30 2026
SYNOPSIS: A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING WEEK-2. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN COLD SIGNALS PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER
MID-ATLANTIC REGION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MANY OF THESE SAME AREAS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS, WITH A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
UPPER MID-ATLANTIC, SAT-SUN, FEB 7-8.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC, SAT-TUE, FEB 7-10.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
SAT-SUN, FEB 7-8.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER,
SAT-FRI, FEB 7-13.
MODERATE RISK OF (EPISODIC) HIGH WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, THE OHIO VALLEY, APPALACHIANS, AND THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA, SAT-TUE, FEB 7-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF (EPISODIC) HIGH WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, OHIO VALLEY, MOST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, SAT-FRI, FEB
7-13.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY FEBRUARY 02 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 06:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 07 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 13: HAZARDOUS COLD TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS ARE PREDICTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) GUIDANCE
ON THE GEFS AND ECENS DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICTS A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK OF THE
COLD SIGNAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. BASED ON THE
PETS, UNCALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE GEFS/ECENS, AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM), A HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS DEPICTED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC,
FEB 7-8. A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED OVER MOST
OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, FEB 7-10; AND A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR THE
DURATION OF WEEK-2. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INDICATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, FEB 7-8. NEAR RECORD
BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO THE NBM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
FOR THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC REGION, THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE NOTED ABOVE PREDICTS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO FOR THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR. WHEN FACTORING IN PREDICTED WIND SPEEDS, THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN -20 AND -30 DEG F. THIS IS INDICATED
BY UNCALIBRATED GEFS/ECENS GUIDANCE. NOT ONLY IS THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER,
BUT THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE WEEK-2 PERIOD
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. THIS EXTREME COLD IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AND VERY
PERSISTENT GREENLAND BLOCK WITH POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT DEPARTURES WHICH
EXTENDS OVER EASTERN CANADA, AND WIDESPREAD LOWER PRESSURE AND NEGATIVE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT DEPARTURES OVER THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE EASTERN CONUS,
REFLECTING A STRONG NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (-AO).
AS NOTED EARLIER, A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IS
PREDICTED TO HAVE ELEVATED CHANCES FOR EPISODIC HIGH WINDS. A MODERATE RISK FOR
HIGH WINDS IS POSTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, THE OHIO VALLEY, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA, FEB 7-10. A
MUCH BROADER SLIGHT RISK OF (EPISODIC) HIGH WINDS IS HIGHLIGHTED FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY, MOST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA, FEB 7-13. THESE MODERATE AND SLIGHT WIND SHAPES ARE BASED ON EXPECTED
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS (OF NORMALIZED ANOMALIES OF MEAN SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE)
FROM THE 0Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF RUNS, THE PETS, AND OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE.
THERE ARE NO PRECIPITATION HAZARDS POSTED TODAY FOR THE CONUS, ALASKA, OR
HAWAII. FOR THE CONUS, ONE REGION THAT IS BEING MONITORED MORE CLOSELY IS THE
EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND DEEP SOUTH. IT IS HERE THAT
ARCTIC AIR MASSES MAY INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES,
WHICH COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING EVENTS. HISTORICALLY, THESE EVENTS
OFTEN BRING FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION, IN ADDITION TO COLD RAIN. OVER THE
ALASKA DOMAIN, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE, BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS. FOR
HAWAII, KONA LOW ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BRING SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION AND WINDS ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN
SUBHAZARDOUS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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