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FXUS21 KWNC 312033
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 31 2026
SYNOPSIS: TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO MODERATE QUICKLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, POTENTIALLY REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AROUND MID-WEEK. THERE IS
LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER LATER IN WEEK-2,WITH SOME TOOLS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE COLD
AIR SETTLING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, THIS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN, WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING LATER WEEK-2. THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT HIGH LATITUDES, WHICH INCREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE CONUS, THUS A SLIGHT RISK OF
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR ALL OF WEEK-2 FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EASTWARD DESPITE THE WARMING ANTICIPATED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
UPPER MID-ATLANTIC, SUN-TUE, FEB 8-10.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEAST,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES, SUN-WED, FEB 8-11.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, SUN, FEB 8.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER,
SUN-SAT, FEB 8-14.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, UPPER MID-ATLANTIC,
AND NORTHEAST, SUN-TUE, FEB 8-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF (EPISODIC) HIGH WINDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, SUN-SAT, FEB 8-14.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 03 - SATURDAY FEBRUARY 07:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 08 - SATURDAY FEBRUARY 14: HAZARDOUS COLD TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS ARE PREDICTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) GUIDANCE FROM
THE GEFS, EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (ECENS), AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (CMCE) ALL START
WEEK-2 WITH CHANCES OF AT LEAST 60 PERCENT OF EXCEEDING THE LOWEST 15TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY OVER A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS,
ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THESE AREAS IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EACH PET. EVEN SO, THE TOOLS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT STRONGLY INDICATING
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, UPPER OHIO VALLEY, AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY WEEK-2, SUPPORTING A HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THESE REGIONS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD (FEB
8-10). AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, THE DYNAMICAL EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF) FORECASTS
TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30 DEG F BELOW NORMAL LOCALLY IN THIS REGION, WITH WIND
CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW 0 DEG F THROUGHOUT THE HIGH RISK AREA. THE ECMWF ALSO
FORECASTS WIND CHILLS BELOW -10 DEG F AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC,
BUT MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS COLD. AFTER THE START OF WEEK-2, THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES MIGHT MODERATE, WITH THE
ECENS PET LOWERING THE RISK MORE QUICKLY THAN THE GEFS AND MCE PETS. A
COMPROMISE OF THESE INDICATORS WAS USED TO DETERMINE THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF A
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS POSTED FOR A LARGER
SURROUNDING AREA INCLUDING PART OF THE CAROLINAS, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2 (THROUGH FEB 11). FARTHER SOUTH,
MOST INDICATORS SHOW MORE ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES LINGERING OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THAN IN OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTH, SO A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO POSTED THERE, BUT ONLY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
WEEK-2 (FEB 8).
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO MODERATE QUICKLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, POTENTIALLY REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AROUND MID-WEEK. THERE IS
LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER LATER IN WEEK-2,WITH SOME TOOLS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE COLD
AIR SETTLING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, THIS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN, WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING LATER WEEK-2. THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT HIGH LATITUDES, WHICH INCREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE CONUS, THUS A SLIGHT RISK OF
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR ALL OF WEEK-2 FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EASTWARD DESPITE THE WARMING ANTICIPATED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2.
EARLY WEEK-2, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CONUS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATED BY THIS SET-UP WOULD BRING HIGH WINDS
TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, UPPER OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST. THIS SIGNAL IS
SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, WITH MODELS GENERALLY FAVORING
THE STORM SYSTEM BEING FARTHER OFF THE COAST, BUT A PREPONDERANCE OF THE MODELS
SHOW AT LEAST A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, SUPPORTING A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF
WEEK-2 (THROUGH FEB 10). AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CONUS,
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE, INCREASING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THE EVOLUTION OF HIGH
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CONUS DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN, BUT MOST INDICATE THAT
SURFACE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE REGION COULD INTERACT PERIODICALLY TO ESTABLISH
HIGH WINDS IN VARYING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SUPPORTS THE DESIGNATION
OF A SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODIC HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS IS NOT TO IMPLY THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSTANTLY STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT
WEEK-2 ACROSS THE ENTIRE RISK AREA, BUT REFLECTS THE EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE
SYSTEMS MAY LEAD TO EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS OVER VARYING PARTS OF THE REGION,
AND THAT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DETERMINE MORE SPECIFICS OF TIME AND
LOCATION.
THE FORECAST OF ELEVATED MEAN MID-LEVEL PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WOULD LEAVE MOST OF
THE CONUS UNDER CYCLONICALLY-CURVED MID-LEVEL WINDS, WHICH IS UNFAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE, NO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OR HEAVY
SNOWFALL HAZARDS ARE POSTED. THE GEFS MEAN SURFACE PATTERN FORECAST KEEPS
PERSISTENT UPSLOPING WINDS BLOWING INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FOR MUCH
OF WEEK-2, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL, BUT THE ECENS
AND CNENS MEANS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AND ARE DRIER. THE DRIER MAJORITY OF
SOLUTIONS IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME.
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA AT THE
OUTSET OF WEEK-2, WITH A SLOW DECLINE INTO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD, WITH NO TEMPERATURE EXTREMES
INDICATED BY ANY OF THE TOOLS. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A STRONG SURFACE STORM
SYSTEM WELL WEST OF ALASKA EARLY, KEEPING HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION AND WINDS
AWAY FROM THE STATE. SOME MODELS SHOW A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING THE GULF OF ALASKA TOWARD THE END OF WEEK-2, BUT AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY SYSTEM WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
ODDS FOR HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION OR WIND. NO HAZARDS ARE POSTED FOR ALASKA AT
THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
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