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FXUS21 KWNC 012046
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 01 2026
SYNOPSIS: THE PROTRACTED PERIOD OF EXTREMELY COLD WEATHER IN THE EASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF WEEK-2. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO HIGH RISKS OF HAZARDOUS MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUSTIFIED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN WEEK-2. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG STORM OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST, ESTABLISHING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE EARLY IN WEEK-2,
WHICH POSES A MODERATE HIGH WIND THREAT IN PART OF THE NORTHEAST. EPISODES OF
HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER A BROADER AREA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SIMILARLY,
EPISODES OF HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
UPPER MID-ATLANTIC, MON-TUE, FEB 9-10.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEAST,
MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO VALLEY, AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES, MON-WED, FEB 9-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS,
MON-WED, FEB 9-11.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT AREAS, MON-TUE, FEB
9-10.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST,
MON-SUN, FEB 9-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, MON-SUN, FEB 9-15.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 04 - SUNDAY FEBRUARY 08:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY FEBRUARY 09 - SUNDAY FEBRUARY 15: HAZARDOUS COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2. HOWEVER, MEANS
FROM TODAY'S GEFS, EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (ECENS), AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (CNENS)
DEPICT TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MODERATE AT THAT TIME, A TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS)
FROM ECENS, CNENS, AND GEFS ALL SHOW WEEK-2 STARTING OUT WITH ENHANCED
LIKELIHOODS OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CONUS. FROM THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS PETS SHOW AT LEAST A
60 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE COLDEST 15 PERCENT OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RANGE. THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS BOTH FORECAST TEMPERATURES OF 20
TO 30F BELOW NORMAL FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CNENS MEAN IS SLIGHTLY LESS EXTREME BUT
CENTERS THE BIGGEST ANOMALIES OVER THE SAME AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PRESENT FARTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEANS,
WITH TEMPERATURES 20F BELOW NORMAL OR COLDER AS FAR WEST AS INDIANA. THE HIGH
RISK IS DISCONTINUED THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE. MEANWHILE, A
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR A LARGER AREA
INCLUDING NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN WEEK-2, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CONUS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATED BY THIS SETUP WOULD BRING HIGH
WINDS TO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS SIGNAL IS SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY, WITH THE STORM SYSTEM FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST, BUT
A PREPONDERANCE OF THE MODELS SHOW AT LEAST A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTING A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS THROUGH
FEB 10, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE FORECAST. THE EVOLUTION OF
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CONUS DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN, BUT MOST INDICATE
THAT SURFACE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE REGION COULD INTERACT PERIODICALLY TO
ESTABLISH HIGH WINDS IN VARYING LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SUPPORTS THE
DESIGNATION OF A SLIGHT RISK OF PERIODIC HIGH WINDS FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
SIMILARLY, THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND GFS MODELS ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. THE MODELS ARE NOT
IN AGREEMENT ON THE SPECIFICS OF LOCATION AND TIMING, BUT ALL SHOW PERIODS OF
ENHANCED HIGH WIND RISK FROM EITHER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPSLOPING
WINDS FROM THE EAST, OR DOWNSLOPING CHINOOK WINDS FROM THE WEST. AFFECTED
LOCATIONS, IF ANY, WILL VARY WITH TIME, BUT WITH THE MODELS INCONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING EXACTLY WHICH LOCATIONS WILL BE AFFECTED ON WHICH DAYS, THE WHOLE
AREA IS BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS THAT CONTINUES THROUGH
WEEK-2.
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA AT THE
OUTSET OF WEEK-2, WITH A SLOW DECLINE INTO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD, WITH NO TEMPERATURE EXTREMES
INDICATED BY ANY OF THE TOOLS. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE ECENS AND CNENS PETS
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED SIGNALS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WIND ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ALASKA, BUT ARE INCONSISTENT WITH PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. IN ADDITION, MOST MODELS DON'T DEPICT A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER OR
NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA DURING WEEK-2, SO NO HAZARDS ARE POSTED ACROSS ALASKA.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
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