773
FXUS21 KWNC 032039
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 03 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) AND CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE BRINGS CHANCES FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. MEANWHILE, IN THE SOUTHWEST, AN AREA
OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE INCREASES CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST, THERE ARE
SIGNS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. IN ALASKA, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC, TUE, FEB 10.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, GREAT
LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, TUE-WED, FEB 10-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC,
TUE-WED, FEB 10-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS, TUE-MON,
FEB 10-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA, TUE-THU, FEB 10-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, TUE-WED, FEB 10-11.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS, NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
TUE-FRI, FEB 10-13.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY FEBRUARY 06 - TUESDAY FEBRUARY 10:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 11 - TUESDAY FEBRUARY 17:
HAZARDOUS COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE
OUTSET OF WEEK-2. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM GEFS, ECENS, CMCE DEPICT
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. THE PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) FROM ECENS, CNENS, AND GEFS ALL SHOW WEEK-2 STARTING OUT
WITH ENHANCED LIKELIHOODS OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CONUS. FROM THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS PETS SHOW
AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE COLDEST 15
PERCENT OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RANGE. THE ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BOTH
FORECAST TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 30F BELOW NORMAL FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GEFS FORECASTS MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FURTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH
TEMPERATURES 20F BELOW NORMAL OR COLDER INTO THE MIDWEST. A MODERATE RISK OF
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST FOR FEB 10. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST, FEB 10-11.
EARLY IN WEEK-2, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CONUS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATED BY THIS SETUP WOULD BRING HIGH
WINDS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THIS SIGNAL IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, WITH THE STORM SYSTEM FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST, BUT A PREPONDERANCE OF THE MODELS SHOW AT LEAST A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTING A SLIGHT
RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR FEB 10-11. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER
WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE REGION SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED MODERATE RISK
OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF, CMC, AND GFS MODELS ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE SPECIFICS OF LOCATION AND TIMING, BUT ALL SHOW PERIODS
OF ENHANCED HIGH WIND RISK FROM EITHER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPSLOPING
WINDS FROM THE EAST, OR DOWNSLOPING CHINOOK WINDS FROM THE WEST. AFFECTED
LOCATIONS, IF ANY, WILL VARY WITH TIME, BUT WITH THE MODELS INCONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING EXACTLY WHICH LOCATIONS WILL BE AFFECTED ON WHICH DAYS, THE WHOLE
AREA IS BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS THAT CONTINUES THROUGH
WEEK-2.
A QUICK MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS EARLY
IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE PETS AND RAW MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND AT LEAST 1
INCH OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THEREFORE, A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR FEB 10-12. ALONG THE SIERRA
NEVADA, AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES INLAND, A HEAVY SNOW RISK IS POSSIBLE.
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS IS FORECASTING AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
AROUND FEB 10 AND 11 AND A CORRESPONDING HAZARD IS POSTED. MEANWHILE, OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BROADER FOUR CORNERS REGION HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM, WASATCH AND SAN JUAN RANGES. AS THIS ENERGY
MOVES EAST, CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IS POSSIBLE. THERE
ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING IF DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AND WHERE IT
WOULD HAPPEN. AT THIS TIME, MOST TOOLS INDICATE ANY LOW PRESSURE TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREA IS FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, A
BROAD SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
FEB 10-13. VARIOUS TOOLS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT THE TIMING AND LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AND NO CORRESPONDING HAZARD IS POSTED BUT WILL BE MONITORED.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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