779
FXUS21 KWNC 032047
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 03 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE EAST SUPPORT A PATTERN
CHANGE TOWARDS WARMER CONDITIONS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA
BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO,
TENNESSEE, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. MEANWHILE, IN THE SOUTHWEST, AN AREA
OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE INCREASES CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST, THERE ARE
SIGNS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER AREA
OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING A RISK OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE
CASCADES AND SIERRA-NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, THU-SUN, FEB 12-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA, WED-THU, FEB 11-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS, NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WED-THU, FEB 11-12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA AND CASCADES, FRI-TUE, FEB
13-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS, WED-TUE,
FEB 11-17.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY FEBRUARY 06 - TUESDAY FEBRUARY 10:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 11 - TUESDAY FEBRUARY 17:
A PATTERN CHANGE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD WITH MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MODERATING TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS)
HIGHLIGHT THIS CHANGE BY THE LACK OF A COLD SIGNAL ACROSS THE EAST IN STARK
CONTRAST TO PRIOR FORECASTS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME LINGERING CHANCES IN SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE MORNING OF FEB 11 BUT
ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED
WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLES FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS
INDICATE ELEVATED CHANCES OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH. THE
12Z GEFS HAS MOVED FURTHER IN THIS DIRECTION WITH STRONGER CHANCES THAN THE 0Z
MODEL RUN. THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT MAY END UP BEING BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION
NEVERTHELESS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR FEB 12-15.
THE OTHER HALF OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE A WELCOME
TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP. EARLY IN WEEK-2, AN
INITIAL MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH, WHILE THE ECENS BASED
TOOLS ARE A LITTLE DRIER TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, THE GEFS MAINTAINS ROBUST
CHANCES OF 3-DAY ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE AND 1 INCH OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR FEB 11-12 OVER THIS REGION. ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE INTERIOR WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
INITIAL SYSTEM. AS SUCH, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR FEB 11-12
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM
BRINGS ELEVATED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL,
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. PETS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS
INDICATE ENHANCED CHANCES OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 2 INCHES EARLY IN WEEK-2. HOWEVER, RAW FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN 72 HOURS WHICH IS
UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. THEREFORE, NO CORRESPONDING HAZARD IS
POSTED TODAY.
THE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND NEAR THE WEST COAST. PETS
FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS INDICATE ENHANCED CHANCES OF 3 DAY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UNCALIBRATED FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES ELEVATED
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CASCADES AND SIERRA NEVADA. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS
POSTED FOR FEB 13-17 DUE TO ONE OR MORE PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF WEEK-2.
THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF, CMC, AND GFS MODELS ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE SPECIFICS OF LOCATION AND TIMING, BUT ALL SHOW PERIODS
OF ENHANCED HIGH WIND RISK FROM EITHER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPSLOPING
WINDS FROM THE EAST, OR DOWNSLOPING CHINOOK WINDS FROM THE WEST. AFFECTED
LOCATIONS, IF ANY, WILL VARY WITH TIME, BUT WITH THE MODELS INCONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING EXACTLY WHICH LOCATIONS WILL BE AFFECTED ON WHICH DAYS, THE WHOLE
AREA IS BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS THAT CONTINUES THROUGH
WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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