286
FXUS21 KWNC 041854
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 04 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN, SNOW AND WIND SINKING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. IN THE EAST, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, THU-SUN, FEB 12-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, THU,
FEB 12.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, THU-MON, FEB 12-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, SAT-WED, FEB 14-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND CASCADES, THU-WED,
FEB 12-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, SAT-WED, FEB 14-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST,
THU-WED, FEB 12-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, THU-MON, FEB 12-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, SAT-WED, FEB 14-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS, THU-WED,
FEB 12-18.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 07 - WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 11:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 12 - WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 18: SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM
THE GULF OF AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLES FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS INDICATE ELEVATED CHANCES OF
3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH. THE 12Z GEFS HAS MOVED FURTHER IN
THIS DIRECTION WITH STRONGER CHANCES THAN THE 0Z MODEL RUN. THIS PRECIPITATION
EVENT MAY END UP BEING BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION NEVERTHELESS A SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR FEB 12-15. SOME OF THIS ENERGY MAY INDUCE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE
FROM THE ECENS BASED TOOLS INDICATE ELEVATED CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS LIMITED SUPPORT FROM
THE GEFS AT THIS TIME AND NO CORRESPONDING HAZARD IS POSTED.
IN THE WEST A WELCOME TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP. AT
THE END OF WEEK-1 AND EARLY IN WEEK-2, AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH. THE GEFS MAINTAINS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR 3-DAY ACCUMULATED
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE OVER PARTS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR FEB 12 OVER THIS REGION.
A STRONGER, LONGER DURATION TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST,
LIKELY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. PETS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS
INDICATE ENHANCED CHANCES OF 3 DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UNCALIBRATED FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES ELEVATED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION OVER THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW AND PRECIPITATION THEN
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING ELEVATED CHANCES TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SIERRA NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF
WEEK-2. AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES INLAND, HEAVY SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR HAZARDOUS SNOW
WILL EXPAND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
WEEK-2. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR THE CASCADES AND
SIERRA-NEVADA FOR FEB 12-18, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR FEB 12-16. A CORRESPONDING SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED
FOR THE COASTAL REGIONS OF THE SAME REGION FOR FEB 12-16. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR
FEB 14-18. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL HIGH
WIND RISK FOR FEB 14-18 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. FINALLY, A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN FOR ALL OF WEEK-2.
THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF, CMC, AND GFS MODELS ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE SPECIFICS OF LOCATION AND TIMING, BUT ALL SHOW PERIODS
OF ENHANCED HIGH WIND RISK FROM EITHER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPSLOPING
WINDS FROM THE EAST, OR DOWNSLOPING CHINOOK WINDS FROM THE WEST. AFFECTED
LOCATIONS, IF ANY, WILL VARY WITH TIME, BUT WITH THE MODELS INCONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING EXACTLY WHICH LOCATIONS WILL BE AFFECTED ON WHICH DAYS, THE WHOLE
AREA IS BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS THAT CONTINUES THROUGH
WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
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