782
FXUS21 KWNC 051930
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 05 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN, SNOW AND WIND SINKING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. IN THE EAST, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AS WELL AS
HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, FRI-SUN, FEB 13-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, FRI-THU, FEB 13-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, SUN-THU, FEB 15-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND CASCADES, FRI-THU,
FEB 13-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, SUN-THU, FEB 15-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, FRI-THU, FEB
13-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE WASATCH RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SUN-THU, FEB 15-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST U.S., FRI-SUN, FEB 13-15
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, FRI-THU, FEB 13-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, SUN-THU, FEB 15-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS,
FRI-THU, FEB 13-19.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 08 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 12:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY FEBRUARY 13 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19: SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE
GULF OF AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLES FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS INDICATE ELEVATED CHANCES OF
3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS
(PETS) FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ALSO INDICATE A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY
PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND AT LEAST 1 INCH
EARLY IN WEEK-2. THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT MAY END UP BEING BENEFICIAL TO THE
REGION NEVERTHELESS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR FEB
13-15. SOME OF THIS ENERGY MAY INDUCE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE ECENS BASED TOOLS INDICATE
ELEVATED CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
WITH PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXCEEDING 40% FOR MUCH OF NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE NOT AS BULLISH, UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE GEFS
INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO EXCEED 4 INCHES.
GIVEN CONSISTENT GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF AND INCREASING SIGNAL FROM THE GEFS, A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR FEB 13-15.
IN THE WEST A WELCOME TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP. AT
THE END OF WEEK-1, AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. A
STRONGER, LONGER DURATION TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST,
LIKELY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. PETS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS
INDICATE ENHANCED CHANCES OF 3 DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UNCALIBRATED FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES ELEVATED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION OVER THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW AND PRECIPITATION THEN
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING ELEVATED CHANCES TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SIERRA NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF
WEEK-2. AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES INLAND, HEAVY SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR HAZARDOUS SNOW
WILL EXPAND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
WEEK-2. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR THE CASCADES AND
SIERRA-NEVADA FOR FEB 13-19, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, ALSO FOR FEB 13-19. A CORRESPONDING SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS
POSTED FOR THE COASTAL REGIONS OF THE SAME REGION FOR FEB 13-19. FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS
POSTED FOR FEB 15-19. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND CORRESPONDING
COASTAL HIGH WIND RISK FOR FEB 15-19 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
FINALLY, IN A SIMILAR PROGRESSION A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES VALID FOR ALL OF WEEK-2, WHILE A SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR THE WASATCH AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES FOR FEB 15-19.
THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF, CMC, AND GFS MODELS ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE SPECIFICS OF LOCATION AND TIMING, BUT ALL SHOW PERIODS
OF ENHANCED HIGH WIND RISK FROM EITHER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPSLOPING
WINDS FROM THE EAST, OR DOWNSLOPING CHINOOK WINDS FROM THE WEST. AFFECTED
LOCATIONS, IF ANY, WILL VARY WITH TIME, BUT WITH THE MODELS INCONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING EXACTLY WHICH LOCATIONS WILL BE AFFECTED ON WHICH DAYS, THE WHOLE
AREA IS BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS THAT CONTINUES THROUGH
WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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