458
FXUS21 KWNC 061929
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 06 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN, SNOW AND WIND EXPANDING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF WEEK-2. IN THE EAST, AN EXITING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. MAY BRING POTENTIALLY HEAVY
SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, SAT-MON, FEB 14-16.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND SIERRA NEVADAS,
SAT-WED, FEB 14-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN, SAT-WED, FEB 14-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST U.S., SAT-SUN, FEB
14-15.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, SAT-WED, FEB 14-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER TO THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, SAT-WED, FEB 14-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, ROCKY
MOUNTAINS, AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, SAT-FRI, FEB 14-20.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY FEBRUARY 09 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 13:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 14 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 20: AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 MULTIPLE
MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES, HAVING MOVED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING WEEK-1. WHILE MOST OF
THE IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS NOW LIKELY PRIOR TO WEEK-2, MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE ECENS BASED TOOLS INDICATE ELEVATED CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WITH PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 4
INCHES OF SNOW EXCEEDING 40% FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. WHILE NOT AS BULLISH,
UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE GEFS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF
3-DAY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO EXCEED 4 INCHES, THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
SNOW REMAINS POSTED FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR FEB 14-15.
IN THE WEST A WELCOME TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP. AT
THE END OF WEEK-1, AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. A
STRONGER, LONGER DURATION TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST,
LIKELY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. TODAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS
FEATURE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC, WHICH WOULD FAVOR BETTER
PENETRATION OF MOISTURE INTO THE INTERIOR WEST, ALTHOUGH REDUCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST. STILL, PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS
(PETS) FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS INDICATE ENHANCED CHANCES OF 3 DAY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.
UNCALIBRATED FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES ELEVATED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION OVER THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST, EXTENDING FROM PUGET SOUND SOUTHWARD TO THE
L.A. BASIN, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS ALSO INDICATED FOR COASTAL AREAS
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL, BOTH VALID
FEB 14-18.
AS NOTED ABOVE, THE FAVORED SYNOPTIC SETUP DEPICTED BY MODEL ENSEMBLES WOULD
FAVOR ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE WEST. BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS DEPICT HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO REACH VARIOUS THRESHOLDS RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY’S SOLUTIONS, AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTHWARD EXTENSION
OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MORE BULLISH MODEL, INDICATING
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 60% OF 3-DAY ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES FOR
MUCH OF THE ROCKIES THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, AND SIMILAR PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING A
FOOT FOR THE SIERRA NEVADAS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE SHOWING A LOWER
SIGNAL, THE GEFS ALSO SHOWS A NOTABLE SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE ROCKIES. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
VALID FEB 14-18. A SECOND SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR THE CASCADES,
KLAMATH AND SIERRA NEVADAS COVERING THE SAME DATES, WHILE A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR THE SIERRA NEVADAS VALID FEB 14-16.
THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF, CMC, AND GFS MODELS ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON THE SPECIFICS OF LOCATION AND TIMING, BUT ALL SHOW PERIODS OF
ENHANCED HIGH WIND RISK FROM EITHER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPSLOPING
WINDS FROM THE EAST, OR DOWNSLOPING CHINOOK WINDS FROM THE WEST. AFFECTED
LOCATIONS, IF ANY, WILL VARY WITH TIME, BUT WITH THE MODELS INCONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING EXACTLY WHICH LOCATIONS WILL BE AFFECTED ON WHICH DAYS, THE WHOLE
AREA IS BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS THAT CONTINUES THROUGH
WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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