696
FXUS21 KWNC 071909
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 07 2026
SYNOPSIS: A TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) STARTING LATER NEXT
WEEK. EARLY IN WEEK-2, A STRENGTHENING AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HIGH ELEVATION HEAVY
SNOW, AND HIGH WIND HAZARDS DURING THE PERIOD. AS THIS AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST, SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS
FAVORED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WHICH IS FAVORED TO BRING ACCUMULATING, AND
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, SUN-MON, FEB 15-16.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA, KLAMATH MOUNTAINS, LOWER
CASCADES, SUN-TUE, FEB 15-17.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
OREGON, SUN-MON, FEB 15-16.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
ADJACENT PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SUN-TUE, FEB 15-17.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER FOUR CORNERS, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SUN-TUE, FEB 15-17.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST COAST, AND PORTIONS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND LOWER FOUR CORNERS, SUN-SAT, FEB 15-21.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN, SUN-SAT, FEB 15-21.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
ROCKIES, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND GREAT BASIN, SUN-SAT, FEB 15-21.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS, SUN-THU,
FEB 15-19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS,
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, MON-WED, FEB 16-18.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 10 - SATURDAY FEBRUARY 14:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 15 - SATURDAY FEBRUARY 21: THE WEEK-2 HAZARDS PERSPECTIVE
REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGHOUT THE CONUS, WHICH CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST, WITH
WARMER CONDITIONS PREVAILING EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING WEEK-2. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK, THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT
FORECASTS FEATURING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND
SHIFTING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY, THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND DEEPER IN BOTH
THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES, RESULTING IN OVERALL STRONGER SURFACE RESPONSES
IN THE RAW AND CALIBRATED TOOLS. FOR PRECIPITATION, THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND
ECMWF BOTH NOW INDICATE GREATER THAN 40% CHANCES FOR 3-DAY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH FROM SOUTHWESTERN OREGON SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE MEXICO BORDER, WITH PROBABILISTIC EXTREME TOOLS (PETS)
DEPICTING ELEVATED (>30%) CHANCES OF THESE AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 90TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. ALTHOUGH INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT TOOLS (IVT)
REMAIN FAIRLY TENUOUS WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) POTENTIAL (MAINTAINING LOW
CHANCES FOR IVT VALUES EXCEEDING 250 KG/M/S), THE SUBSTANTIAL UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS IN THESE OTHER TOOLS SUPPORTS THE ADDITION OF A MODERATE
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE OREGON
COAST FOR FEB 15-16. THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION FAVORED MAY TRIGGER URBAN
AND/OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING FROM THE BAY AREA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
BY DAY 10 (FEB 17), ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINTS TO A NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD. THIS IS BEST REFLECTED BY THE ECMWF PET DEPICTING GROWING SIGNALS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON WITH 30% CHANCES FOR
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE. HOWEVER, UNCALIBRATED TOOLS ARE NOT
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGHER HAZARD DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME. THE WEAK
PROBABILITIES FOR AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
LIKELY TIED TO THE MEAN TROUGH GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING WITH TIME, BUT THIS
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN UPCOMING OUTLOOKS. TO CAPTURE THIS
EVOLUTION, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST FOR WEEK-2, WITH COVERAGE EXTENDED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
LOWER FOUR CORNERS BASED ON INCREASED SIGNALS FOR AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
WEST COAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND, HOWEVER ACTUAL MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE HAZARD THRESHOLDS.
WITH INCREASED TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY, THIS ALSO SUPPORTS A HIGHER RISK OF SNOW RELATED HAZARDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST. CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TOOLS, SUBSTANTIAL INCREASES ARE EVIDENT AMONG A NUMBER OF SNOW TOOLS WHERE THE
UNCALIBRATED ECMWF, IN PARTICULAR, INDICATES 60-70% CHANCES FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING A FOOT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CALIFORNIA EARLY IN WEEK-2,
RESULTING IN THE ADDITION OF A HIGH RISK OF HEAVY SNOW POSTED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS FOR FEB 15-16. BASED ON THE INCREASES
IN THE PRECIPITATION AND SNOW SIGNALS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST, A
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW REMAINS POSTED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADAS
(FEB 15-17) AND IS EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO COVER THE KLAMATH MOUNTAINS AND THE
SOUTHERN CASCADES. AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EASTWARD, THERE IS BETTER
TOOL SUPPORT FOR THE ADDITION OF A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOCUSED MOGOLLON
RIM OF ARIZONA AND ADJACENT RANGES OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES (FEB
15-17), WHERE THE GEFS BASED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) PET SHOWS 30% CHANCES
FOR VALUES EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE IN THE REGION. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW REMAINS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST, VALID FOR ALL OF
WEEK-2, WITH ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OVER NEVADA IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK.
DUE TO STRONGER TROUGHING FAVORED IN UPDATED GUIDANCE, THE SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH
WINDS REMAINS POSTED (FEB 15-19) AND IS BROADENED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AT THE BASE AND AHEAD OF THE MEAN AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
ALOFT, AND WHERE ENSEMBLES ALSO FAVOR STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
THROUGH MID WEEK-2. BASED ON THE PETS, AS WELL AS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE DEPICTING
40-70% FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40MPH OVER THE LOWER FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS ISSUED FOR
FEB 15-17. THIS ELEVATED WIND RISK IS TIED TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS FAVORED, WITH
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES FEATURING AN EXPANSIVE 999-HPA MEAN LOW ON
DAY 9 (FEB 16) OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, ACCUMULATING AND POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW DESPITE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEING FAVORED. ENSEMBLES SHOW 20-30% CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
EXCEEDING 4 INCHES WITH THE GEFS SWE PET MAINTAINING 20% CHANCES FOR VALUES
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS TO SUPPORT THE
ADDITION OF A SLIGHT RISK OF LOWER ELEVATION HEAVY SNOW FOR FEB 16-18.
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST IS
DISCONTINUED IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK, AS TOOLS HAVE BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS RISK EARLY IN WEEK-2. WHILE BOTH THE GEFS AND ECWMF ENSEMBLES DO SHOW THE
RETURN OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW LATER IN WEEK-2, DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND
UNCERTAINTIES IN DETAILS OF THE STORM TRACK LOCATION PRECLUDE ANY SNOW RELATED
HAZARDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME.
NO HAZARDS ARE ISSUED OVER ALASKA. WHILE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED TIED TO A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, ACTUAL MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE HAZARD THRESHOLDS. STRONGER COLD
SIGNALS IN THE PETS DO EMERGE AS RIDGING EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA
LATER IN WEEK-2, AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE REASSESSED IN UPCOMING OUTLOOKS.
OVER HAWAII, THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR TROUGHING TO REDEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE FAVORABLE FOR KONA LOW DEVELOPMENT. PETS
SHOW INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE
OVER MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, BUT KEEP THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS (> 1 INCH) OFF TO
THE WEST IN THESE TOOLS.
FORECASTER: NICK NOVELLA
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