838
FXUS21 KWNC 081935
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 08 2026
SYNOPSIS: A TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) STARTING LATER NEXT
WEEK. EARLY IN WEEK-2, A STRONG AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HIGH ELEVATION HEAVY SNOW, AND
HIGH WIND HAZARDS DURING THE PERIOD. AS THIS AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST, SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS PREDICTED
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WHICH IS FAVORED TO BRING ACCUMULATING, AND POSSIBLY
HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
HIGH RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, MON-WED, FEB 16-18.
HIGH RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR COASTAL CALIFORNIA FROM THE BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO BORDER, MON-TUE, FEB 16-17.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA, KLAMATH MOUNTAINS, LOWER
CASCADES, MON-THU, FEB 16-19.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
OREGON, MON-WED, FEB 16-18.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
ADJACENT PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, MON-WED, FEB 16-18.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER FOUR CORNERS, ROCKIES,
AND THE GREAT PLAINS, MON-WED, FEB 16-18.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST COAST, AND PORTIONS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND LOWER FOUR CORNERS, MON-SUN, FEB 16-22.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADES, KLAMATH, AND SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN, MON-SUN, FEB 16-22.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
ROCKIES, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND GREAT BASIN, MON-SUN, FEB 16-22.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS, MON-FRI,
FEB 16-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS,
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, MON-WED, FEB 16-18.
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL CALIFORNIA FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTHWARD TO THE
MEXICO BORDER.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 11 - SUNDAY FEBRUARY 15:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY FEBRUARY 16 - SUNDAY FEBRUARY 22: EARLY IN WEEK-2, DYNAMICAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST
COAST, WITH BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
DOWNSTREAM. ONE NOTABLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE, IS A STRONGER BUT SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS FORMER MID-LEVEL MEAN
FEATURE IN THE UPDATED GUIDANCE. WHILE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT FALLING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS SUGGESTIVE OF THE EJECTION
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE INTERIOR WEST, BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A
DEEPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. THIS
NOT ONLY IMPLIES A HIGHER RISK POTENTIAL OF THE MULTIPLE HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, BUT ALSO HAZARDS THAT ARE OF LONGER DURATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY FAVORED IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK.
BASED ON BOTH RAW AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND
CANADIAN EARLY IN THE PERIOD, HIGHER DAILY MEAN PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE
FEATURED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. WHILE THE GEFS REMAINS
THE COMPARABLY DRIEST AMONG THE MODELS, HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
EXCEEDANCE ARE STILL FEATURED ALONG THE WEST COAST IN THE GEFS, WITH THE
UNCALIBRATED ECMWF NOW DEPICTING 60-80% (30-50%) CHANCES FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 1 (2) INCH(ES). GIVEN THIS SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE ALONG WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE, A HIGH RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR
FEB 16-17 OVER COASTAL CALIFORNIA FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO
BORDER, WITH A BROADER MODERATE RISK AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION (FEB 16-18)
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. THE POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
FAVORED MAY TRIGGER URBAN AND/OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING WHERE THERE IS INCREASED
MODEL SUPPORT FOR RIVERINE RESPONSES. THEREFORE, A FLOODING POSSIBLE HAZARD IS
POSTED FROM THE BAY AREA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK.
BY DAY 10 (FEB 18), ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TO A NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING QUICKLY BECOMING MORE DEAMPLIFIED WHILE
LIFTING OUT AT THESE LEADS, TOOLS ARE NOT QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF A MODERATE RISK
DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME, AND AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
REMAINS POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE WEST COAST. THE SLIGHT RISK COVERAGE ALSO REMAINS
EXTENDED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE PROBABILISTIC EXTREME TOOLS (PETS)
CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED CHANCES FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE AND 1 INCH DURING THE PERIOD. AS THE ANOMALOUS NEGATIVE HEIGHT
DEPARTURES SHIFT INLAND, COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. PETS BEGIN TO SHOW INCREASED CHANCES FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST,
THOUGH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HAZARD THRESHOLDS.
THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH MORE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ALSO SUPPORTS AN ELEVATED RISK OF SNOW RELATED HAZARDS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST. CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS, SIGNAL
INCREASES ARE EVIDENT AMONG A NUMBER OF SNOW TOOLS WHERE THE UNCALIBRATED ECMWF
INDICATES >70% CHANCES FOR 3-DAY AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CALIFORNIA EARLY IN WEEK-2. THIS TOOL ALSO SHOWS 20-30% CHANCES
FOR 24-HR AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 18 INCHES THROUGH DAY 10, RESULTING IN THE HIGH
RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS
BEING EXTENDED THROUGH FEB 18. A BROADER MODERATE RISK OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
REMAINS ISSUED, AND IS ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH FEB 19 OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND
KLAMATH MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES WHERE THERE IS MORE PERSISTENCE
OF ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT THROUGH
MID-WEEK-2. WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVERSPREADING THE INTERIOR WEST, THERE
IS GOOD TOOL SUPPORT FOR CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOCUSED
ON THE MOGOLLON RIM OF ARIZONA AND ADJACENT RANGES OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES (FEB 16-18). WITHIN THIS HIGHLIGHTED AREA, THE GEFS BASED SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) PET MAINTAINS 30% CHANCES FOR VALUES EXCEEDING THE 85TH
PERCENTILE IN THE REGION. A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW REMAINS ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST, VALID FOR ALL OF WEEK-2.
AT THE BASE AND AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ALOFT, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH
WINDS REMAINS POSTED (FEB 16-20) WHERE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRONGER
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID
WEEK-2. BASED ON THE PETS, AS WELL AS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE DEPICTING 40-70%
CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40MPH OVER THE LOWER FOUR CORNERS, ROCKIES,
AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS
ISSUED FOR FEB 16-18. THIS ELEVATED WIND RISK IS ALSO TIED TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS
FAVORED, WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES FEATURING AN EXPANSIVE SUB
1000-HPA MEAN LOW ON DAY 8 (FEB 16) OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, ACCUMULATING AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN SURFACE LOW DESPITE WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEING FAVORED. A SLIGHT RISK OF LOWER ELEVATION HEAVY
SNOW REMAINS ISSUED FOR FEB 16-18 WHERE TOOLS SHOW 20-30% CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
EXCEEDING 4 INCHES AND THE GEFS SWE PET MAINTAINING 20% CHANCES FOR VALUES
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD, INCREASED SNOWFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS INCREASING CHANCES FOR AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 4
INCHES EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE GEFS REMAINS WEAKER WITH THIS POTENTIAL AND NO
CORRESPONDING SNOW HAZARDS ARE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
TIED TO ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT IS FAVORED TO BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE BERING STRAIT LATER IN WEEK-2, PETS SHOW STRENGTHENING COLD SIGNALS MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE SOUTHEAST OF ALASKA. NO HAZARDS ARE ISSUED
GIVEN GENERAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS LEAD, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REASSESSED IN UPCOMING OUTLOOKS. OVER HAWAII, THERE IS
SOME ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR TROUGHING TO REDEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE NORTH PACIFIC
RIDGE FAVORABLE FOR KONA LOW DEVELOPMENT. PETS SHOW INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE OVER MUCH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN, BUT KEEP THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS (> 1 INCH) OFF TO THE WEST IN THESE TOOLS.
FORECASTER: NICK NOVELLA
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