003
FXUS21 KWNC 111950
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 11 2026
SYNOPSIS: DURING WEEK-1, ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). THIS FAVORS
INCREASING CHANCES OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH ELEVATION HEAVY SNOW OVER
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE START OF WEEK-2, THE MID-LEVEL
LOW IS PREDICTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN DECREASING CHANCES OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT SHIFTING THE FOCUS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT WEEK-2.
ADDITIONALLY, INCREASED CHANCES FOR HIGH WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ENHANCED WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS ALONG WITH A WINTER STORM RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA, AND COMBINED WITH HIGH WINDS, MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WIND CHILL
VALUES.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, KLAMATH
MOUNTAINS, AND SOUTHERN CASCADES, THU, FEB 19.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES, KLAMATH MOUNTAINS,
AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, THU-WED, FEB 19-25.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST, THU-WED, FEB
19-25.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, THU-SAT, FEB 19-21.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
THU-FRI, FEB 19-20.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES, GREAT PLAINS, AND
ADJACENT MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THU-SUN, FEB 19-22.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST, THU-WED, FEB 19-25.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
THU-SAT, FEB 19-21.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, THU-WED, FEB 19-25.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
THU-SAT, FEB 19-21.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA,
THU-WED, FEB 19-25.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA,
SAT-WED, FEB 21-25.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS,
FRI-WED, FEB 20-25.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 14 - WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 18:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19 - WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 25: THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A 500-HPA TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND IN CONJUNCTION WITH A NEGATIVE PHASE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (-PNA) PATTERN. THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH
FAVORS PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, BY THE START OF
WEEK-2 (FEB 19), THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD, WITH THE
STRONGEST NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS FAVORS A DECREASING RISK OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SHIFTING STRONGER SIGNALS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GEFS AND ECMWF
PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) DEPICT PROBABILITIES OF 20-40 PERCENT OF
3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND
1-INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT BECOME SCOPED
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREDICTED PATTERN PROGRESSION. AS A RESULT, THE MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CALIFORNIA IS DISCONTINUED. A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE
FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE FOR FEB 19-21, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT
RISK EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
END OF WEEK-2 (FEB 25). A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WAS CONSIDERED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, WEAKER SIGNALS IN THE PETS (CHANCES
UNDER 40 PERCENT FOR 3-DAY PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE), ALONG
WITH MARGINAL INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) VALUES PRECLUDED THE ADDITION AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, HIGHER 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION VALUES ARE DEPICTED IN THE
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD,
THEREFORE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WHILE NO AREAS OF FLOODING ARE
NOTED IN TODAY'S OUTLOOK DUE TO TIMING OUT BEFORE WEEK-2, ANY AREAS THAT DO
RECEIVE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK OF LOCALIZED URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLASH FLOODING.
THE DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BRING MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS. WHILE THE BULK OF THIS SNOWFALL IS FAVORED IN WEEK-1,
A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2
(FEB 19) AND ALSO INCLUDES THE KLAMATH MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN CASCADES WHERE
THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT 24-HOUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 6-INCHES. SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
FAVOR THE TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK-2, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS VALID FROM FEB 19-25,
AND EXTENDS FROM THE CASCADES SOUTH TO THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
SNOW TOTALS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CASCADES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH
DECREASING HEAVY SNOW CHANCES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. AS TEMPERATURES TREND
COLDER DURING LATE FEBRUARY, THERE COULD BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS SUCH AS FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SPECIFY ANY SNOW
HAZARDS AT TIME, BUT THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ALSO REMAINS POSTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
INTERIOR WEST FOR ALL OF WEEK-2 GIVEN THE CONTINUED ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW. THE
MUCH SNOWIER LATTER HALF OF FEBRUARY WILL BE WELCOMED ACROSS THE WEST AS SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) IS CURRENTLY BELOW 50 PERCENT OF AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CALIFORNIA.
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR ALL OF WEEK-2. FURTHER INLAND, ENERGY ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS FAVORS PERIODS OF
ENHANCED WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL
IN WEEK-1, THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT ELEVATED CHANCES
(30-50 PERCENT) FOR WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 20-KNOTS AT THE START OF WEEK-2.
GIVEN THE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER THIS REGION, A MODERATE RISK FOR HIGH
WINDS IS POSTED FEB 19-20, WITH A BROADER SLIGHT RISK CONTINUING THROUGH FEB
22. TO THE NORTHWEST OF ANY LOW PRESSURE TRACK, THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF A
WINTER STORM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION AND THE GEFS SWE TOOL (20-40% CHANCE
OF 3-DAY AMOUNTS TO EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND A HALF-INCH,
LIQUID EQUIVALENT), A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR THESE AREAS, FEB
19-21. THERE IS INCREASING ENSEMBLE SPREAD REGARDING THE LOW TRACK ONCE IT
APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST, PRECLUDING A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW.
DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE WEST OF THE BERING STRAIT AND ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY FLOW, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT ALASKA. FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS DEPICT GREATER THAN A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE LOWEST 10TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE EARLY IN WEEK-2, SUPPORTING A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS REGION, FEB 19-21. EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR GAP WINDS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES THROUGHOUT WEEK-2 AND EXTENDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA. ENSEMBLE MEANS VARY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ANOMALOUS COLD
OVERSPREADING SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, BUT THE PETS AND UNCALIBRATED MODEL OUTPUT
SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING ON FEB 21. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TIED TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA
AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA, FEB 20-25.
OVER HAWAII, THE FORECAST PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR KONA LOW
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF FEBRUARY. THE GEFS PET DEPICTS A 20 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN DURING WEEK-2. PROBABILITIES ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE ECMWF PET, WITH BOTH TOOLS INDICATING THE STRONGEST
SIGNAL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST ISLANDS.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
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