794
FXUS21 KWNC 121909
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 12 2026
SYNOPSIS: DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING
WEEK-1. BY THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTHWARD,
FAVORING A DECREASING CHANCE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWEST, AND A MORE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN EMERGING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PREDICTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA, AND COMBINED WITH HIGH WINDS, MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WIND CHILL VALUES.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, FRI-THU, FEB 20-26.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES, KLAMATH MOUNTAINS,
AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, FRI-THU, FEB 20-26.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST, FRI-THU, FEB
20-26.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES, FRI-SUN, FEB 20-22.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST, FRI-THU, FEB 20-26.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES, GREAT PLAINS, AND
ADJACENT MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FRI-SUN, FEB 20-22.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
FRI-MON, FEB 20-23.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA,
FRI-THU, FEB 20-26.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND COAST TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA, FRI-THU, FEB 20-26.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 15 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY FEBRUARY 20 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 26: THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A 500-HPA TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND IN CONJUNCTION WITH A NEGATIVE PHASE
OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (-PNA) PATTERN. BY THE START OF WEEK-2 (FEB 20),
THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD, WITH THE STRONGEST NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES BECOMING FOCUSED OVER WESTERN CANADA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. THIS FAVORS A DECREASING RISK OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S., WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING STRONGER SIGNALS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GEFS AND ECMWF PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS)
DEPICT PROBABILITIES OF 20-30 PERCENT OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING
THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 1-INCH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SUPPORTING A SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER THESE AREAS. WEAKER SIGNALS IN THE PETS (CHANCES UNDER 40
PERCENT FOR 3-DAY PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE), ALONG WITH
MARGINAL INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) VALUES PRECLUDED THE ADDITION OF A
MODERATE RISK. HOWEVER, HIGHER 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION VALUES ARE DEPICTED IN THE
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD,
THEREFORE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WHILE NO AREAS OF FLOODING ARE
NOTED IN TODAY'S OUTLOOK DUE TO TIMING OUT BEFORE WEEK-2, ANY AREAS THAT DO
RECEIVE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE AN ELEVATED RISK OF LOCALIZED URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WET
PATTERN.
A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW REMAINS POSTED FROM THE CASCADES SOUTHWARD TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS FOR ALL OF WEEK-2. WHILE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE CASCADES, THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT
INCREASED CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE SIERRA
NEVADAS, ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS NOTABLY WEAKER COMPARED TO IN WEEK-1 AND NO
LONGER SUPPORTS A MODERATE RISK. AS TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER DURING LATE
FEBRUARY, THERE COULD BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS SUCH AS
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SPECIFY ANY SNOW HAZARDS AT TIME, BUT THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW
ALSO REMAINS POSTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST FOR ALL OF
WEEK-2 GIVEN THE CONTINUED ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW. THE MUCH SNOWIER LATTER HALF
OF FEBRUARY WILL BE WELCOMED ACROSS THE WEST AS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) IS
CURRENTLY BELOW 50 PERCENT OF AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN, AND CALIFORNIA.
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST FOR ALL OF WEEK-2, WITH THE ECMWF PET DEPICTING AT LEAST A 20
PERCENT CHANCE WIND SPEEDS EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 25-MPH
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FURTHER INLAND, ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS FAVORS PERIODS OF ENHANCED WINDS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SURFACE LOW MOVING
OUT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN WEEK-1, WITH THE ASSOCIATED MODERATE HIGH
WIND RISK TIED TO THIS FEATURE TIMING OFF. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FAVORS ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES DURING WEEK-2.
WHILE THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY, GIVEN THE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK, A SLIGHT
RISK FOR HIGH WINDS REMAINS POSTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES, GREAT
PLAINS, AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FEB 22. TO THE
NORTHWEST OF ANY LOW PRESSURE TRACK, THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF A WINTER
STORM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES. BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION AND THE GEFS SWE TOOL (20-40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 3-DAY AMOUNTS TO EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND A HALF-INCH,
LIQUID EQUIVALENT), A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED FOR THESE AREAS, FEB
20-22.
DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE WEST OF THE BERING STRAIT AND ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY FLOW, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT ALASKA. FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS PETS DEPICT GREATER THAN A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE 10TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, SUPPORTING A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS REGION, FEB 20-23. A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND EXTENDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE QUICKER TO SPREAD
HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES WESTWARD, WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE DELAYING THE
PROGRESSION TO THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIED TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA, EXTENDING TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. HIGH WINDS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL VALUES OVER SOME AREAS.
OVER HAWAII, THE FORECAST PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR KONA LOW
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF FEBRUARY. THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS DEPICT A
20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN DURING WEEK-2, WITH THE
STRONGEST SIGNAL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST ISLANDS.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
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