044
FXUS21 KWNC 141901
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 14 2026
SYNOPSIS: A STABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH A STRONG AREA OF MID-LEVEL HIGH
(LOW) PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA (NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC) DURING THE FINAL WEEK
OF FEBRUARY. THE STRONG AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FAVORS AN INCREASED RISK
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HEAVY SNOW, AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BEGINNING LATER NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF
FEBRUARY, ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN COLDER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT ALASKA.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON, SUN-WED, FEB 22-25.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SUN-SAT, FEB
22-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, SUN-SAT, FEB 22-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS,
WED-SAT, FEB 25-28.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE KLAMATH AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, SUN-WED, FEB 22-25.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES, SUN-SAT, FEB 22-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES, KLAMATH MOUNTAINS,
AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, SUN-SAT, FEB 22-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST, SUN-SAT, FEB
22-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WED-SAT, FEB 25-28.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON,
SUN-SAT, FEB 22-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE HIGH PLAINS, SUN-SAT, FEB
22-28.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, SUN-SAT, FEB 22-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA, SUN-SAT, FEB 22-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
SUN-SAT, FEB 22-28.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 17 - SATURDAY FEBRUARY 21:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 22 - SATURDAY FEBRUARY 28: THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA RIDGE (TROUGH) OVER THE
BERING SEA (NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC) ANCHORS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING LATE FEBRUARY. DUE TO THIS STABLE AND
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN, THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW
HAZARDS WERE BASED LARGELY ON THE 24-HOUR UNCALIBRATED AMOUNTS FROM THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE GEFS AND ECENS INDICATE NEAR A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) VALUES EXCEED 250 KG/M/S ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FEB 22 AND 23 AND THEN AGAIN FROM FEB
26-28 BUT WITH A MORE NORTHWARD FOCUS ACROSS OREGON AND WASHINGTON. A MODERATE
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM FEB 22-25,
WHILE THE MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF WEEK-2. ACCORDING TO THE GEFS AND ECENS, 7-DAY
TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM FEB 22-28 ARE NEAR 4 INCHES, LIQUID
EQUIVALENT, ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS INCLUDING THE COASTAL
RANGES OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THE LONG
DURATION OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION INCREASES THE CHANCE OF LOCALIZED URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SOUTH TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS VALID FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
WEEK-2. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE AMPLIFIED
500-HPA TROUGH RETREATING NORTHWARD LATER IN WEEK-2 WHICH EVENTUALLY LEADS TO
RISING 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS CALIFORNIA. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR
CALIFORNIA TOWARDS THE END OF FEBRUARY.
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES ALONG
WITH THE KLAMATH AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE FEBRUARY. THE 24-HOUR
AMOUNTS FROM THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE SUPPORT AT LEAST A MODERATE
RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND KLAMATH MOUNTAINS FROM
FEB 22-25 WITH THIS MODERATE RISK CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF WEEK-2 FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE CASCADES. DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN PROBABILITIES OF MORE
THAN A FOOT BETWEEN THE GEFS (20 TO 30%) AND ECENS (> 60%), A HIGH RISK OF
HEAVY SNOW WAS NOT POSTED AT THIS TIME. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS
DESIGNATED FOR THE CASCADES, NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, KLAMATH
MOUNTAINS, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH FEB 28. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CASCADES BY THE END OF THE MONTH. DUE TO
THE DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST
TO BE LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY WITH THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES
INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW. FOR ELEVATIONS CLOSER TO SEA LEVEL,
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS MUCH HIGHER AND THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME. THE MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE TO ONE MORE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING SNOWPACK WILL BE WELCOMED
ACROSS THE WEST AS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS CURRENTLY RUNNING BELOW 50% OF
AVERAGE FOR MANY AREAS.
THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH AND ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW ALSO SUPPORT A MODERATE
RISK OF HIGH WINDS ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM FEB 22-28.
ANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SHIFTS EAST FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THEREFORE, A LARGE SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS WAS NECESSARY FROM THE WEST COAST
EAST TO THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS AN INCREASING MODEL
SIGNAL FOR LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AROUND FEB 24 WHICH
FURTHER SUPPORTS THE WIND HAZARD. GUSTY WINDS WOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE
DANGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PARCHED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SINCE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE WEST AND AN UPTICK IN 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GEFS AND
ECENS, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION (FEB 25-28) IS POSTED FOR THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF ANY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THERE
IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN AND GREAT PLAINS EAST TO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW, VALID FROM FEB
25-28, WAS BASED MOSTLY ON WHERE THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE NEAR A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MORE THAN 4 INCHES.
DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT ALASKA DURING WEEK-2. THE GEFS
AND CMCE CONTINUE TO DEPICT DAILY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF MORE THAN -20
DEGREES F, SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA FROM FEB 22-28. IN ADDITION, THE
GEFS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) INDICATES MORE THAN A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWEST 10TH PERCENTILE. SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS, THE ECMWF PET HAS THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THEN SHIFTS IT TO
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA LATER IN WEEK-2. BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS, A SLIGHT
RISK FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ALASKA
MAINLAND AND ALSO WEST TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIED TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. HIGH WINDS COMBINED WITH FRIGID
TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES. INTERIOR AREAS OF THE
MAINLAND MAY EXPERIENCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF LESS THAN -20 DEG F (-40 DEG F
LOCALLY).
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
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