733
FXUS21 KWNC 152041
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 15 2026
SYNOPSIS: A STABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH A STRONG AREA OF MID-LEVEL HIGH
(LOW) PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA (ALASKA, WESTERN CANADA, AND NORTHWEST
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS)) FOR WEEK-2. THE STRONG AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
FAVORS AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HEAVY SNOW, AND HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF CALIFORNIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MAY BRING EPISODES OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE EAST OR WINTRY WEATHER ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER,
ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN. GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND
INTO THE INTERIOR WEST. ACROSS ALASKA, THERE IS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA WOULD FURTHER DECREASE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. GAP
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LOCALLY FOR SOME AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON, MON-TUE, FEB 23-24.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MON-SUN, FEB
23-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, MON-SUN, FEB 23-MAR 1.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE KLAMATH AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, MON-TUE, FEB 23-24.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES, MON-SUN, FEB 23-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES, KLAMATH MOUNTAINS,
AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, MON-SUN, FEB 23-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST, MON-SUN, FEB
23-MAR 1.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON,
MON-SUN, FEB 23-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE GREAT PLAINS, MON-SUN, FEB
23-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES REGION, WED-SUN, FEB 25-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO, MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THU-MON, FEB 26-MAR 1.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, MON-SUN, FEB 23-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA, MON-SUN, FEB 23-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
MON-SUN, FEB 23-MAR 1.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 18 - SUNDAY FEBRUARY 22:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY FEBRUARY 23 - SUNDAY MARCH 01: THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE CONTINUE TO
BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA RIDGE (TROUGH)
OVER THE BERING SEA (ALASKA, WESTERN CANADA, AND NORTHWEST CONUS) FROM THE END
OF FEBRUARY TO THE ONSET OF MARCH. DUE TO THIS STABLE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
LONGWAVE PATTERN, THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW HAZARDS WERE BASED
LARGELY ON THE 24-HOUR UNCALIBRATED AMOUNTS FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. BOTH THE
GEFS AND ECENS HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT)
VALUES EXCEEDING 250 KG/M/S COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FOR PARTS OF THE WEST COAST
WITH SOME ENHANCED VALUES FURTHER SOUTH IN CALIFORNIA. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
THE ENHANCED IVT POTENTIAL OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE
BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED TO FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF WEEK-2.
A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON FROM FEB 23-24, WHILE THE MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF WEEK-2. ACCORDING TO
THE GEFS AND ECENS, 7-DAY TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR WEEK-2 ARE NEAR 4
INCHES, LIQUID EQUIVALENT, ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS INCLUDING
THE COASTAL RANGES OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CASCADES OF OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. THE LONG DURATION OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION INCREASES THE CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTH TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA (VALID FOR THE ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2) HAS BEEN EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH GIVEN THE MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH SINKING FURTHER SOUTH AT THE
BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH RETROGRADING NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN WEEK-2,
EVENTUALLY LEADING TO RISING 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS CALIFORNIA. A DRYING TREND
IS EXPECTED FOR CALIFORNIA TOWARDS THE END OF FEBRUARY.
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES ALONG
WITH THE KLAMATH AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE FEBRUARY. THE 24-HOUR
AMOUNTS FROM THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE SUPPORT AT LEAST A MODERATE
RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND KLAMATH MOUNTAINS FROM
FEB 23-24 WITH THIS MODERATE RISK CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF WEEK-2 FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE CASCADES. DUE TO CONTINUED LARGE DIFFERENCES IN PROBABILITIES
OF 7-DAY TOTALS EXCEEDING A FOOT BETWEEN THE GEFS (20 TO 30%) AND ECENS (>
60%), A HIGH RISK OF HEAVY SNOW WAS NOT POSTED AT THIS TIME. A SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY SNOW IS DESIGNATED FOR THE CASCADES, NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS,
KLAMATH MOUNTAINS, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MAR 1. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CASCADES BY THE END OF THE MONTH. DUE TO
THE DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST
TO BE LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY WITH THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES
INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW. FOR ELEVATIONS CLOSER TO SEA LEVEL,
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS MUCH HIGHER AND THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME. THE MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE TO ONE MORE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING SNOWPACK WILL BE WELCOMED
ACROSS THE WEST AS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS CURRENTLY RUNNING BELOW 50% OF
AVERAGE FOR MANY AREAS.
THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH AND ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW ALSO SUPPORTS INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. THE MODERATE RISK HAS
BEEN EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE COASTAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN ADDITION
TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON (VALID THROUGH WEEK-2).
ANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SHIFTS EAST FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE BROAD AREA
HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS EXPANSION
WAS BASED ON THE INCREASED SIGNAL IN HIGH WINDS IN THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES
TOOLS (PETS) AND MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR GREATER SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF HIGH WINDS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR LEESIDE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND FEB 24 WHICH FURTHER
SUPPORTS THE WIND HAZARD. GUSTY WINDS WOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PARCHED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER (NIFC) SHOWS A MODERATE RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE REGIONS TOWARDS THE END OF WEEK-1
LEADING UP TO WEEK-2.
AFOREMENTIONED LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GREAT PLAINS COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE
LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA MAY INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION (FEB 26-MAR 1) IS POSTED FOR THE OHIO, MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF ANY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS DESIGNATED FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES REGION, FEB 25-MAR 1, BASED
MOSTLY ON WHERE THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE NEAR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE THAN 4
INCHES WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT PET INDICATING
AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT ALASKA DURING WEEK-2. THERE ARE
INCREASED SIGNALS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THE MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS EXPANDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE ALASKA PENINSULA IN ADDITION TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, FOR THE ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2. MODELS
INDICATE THE EXTREME ANOMALOUS COLD INITIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA, SHIFTING WESTWARD DURING WEEK-2. PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE OF
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWEST 10TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED MODERATE RISK AREA. RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 20 DEG F BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. A
BROADER AREA OF SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS FURTHER NORTH TO THE CENTRAL MAINLAND. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TIED TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING
STRAIT, INTERIOR MAINLAND ALASKA, AND THE YUKON ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. HIGH WINDS COMBINED WITH FRIGID
TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES. INTERIOR AREAS OF THE
MAINLAND MAY EXPERIENCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF LESS THAN -20 DEG F (-40 DEG F
LOCALLY). GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN SET UP, THERE IS INCREASED RISK OF GAP
WINDS LOCALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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