798
FXUS21 KWNC 161904
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 16 2026
SYNOPSIS: A STABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH A STRONG AREA OF MID-LEVEL HIGH
(LOW) PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA (ALASKA, WESTERN CANADA, AND NORTHWEST
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS)) FOR WEEK-2. THE STRONG AREA OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
FAVORS AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HEAVY SNOW, AND HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF CALIFORNIA. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO EXTEND INTO THE INTERIOR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MAY BRING EPISODES OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER
PARTS OF THE EAST OR WINTRY WEATHER ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER, ALTHOUGH EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN. ACROSS ALASKA, THERE IS INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA, ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE
DECREASED SIGNALS FOR THIS HAZARD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. REGARDLESS, GUSTY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA WOULD FURTHER DECREASE WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES. GAP WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LOCALLY FOR SOME AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON, TUE-WED, FEB 24-25.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,TUE-MON, FEB
24-MAR 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, TUE-MON, FEB 24-MAR 2.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE KLAMATH AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, TUE-WED, FEB 24-25.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES, TUE-MON, FEB 24-MAR 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES, KLAMATH MOUNTAINS,
AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, TUE-MON, FEB 24-MAR 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST, TUE-SAT, FEB
24-28.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON,
TUE-MON, FEB 24-MAR 2.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND GREAT
PLAINS, TUE-SAT, FEB 24-28.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE GREAT PLAINS, TUE-MON, FEB
24-MAR 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT
LAKES REGION, AND NORTHEAST, TUE-FRI, FEB 24-27.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO, MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, WED-FRI, FEB 25-27.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, FRI-MON, FEB 27-MAR
2.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA, TUE-MON, FEB 24-MAR 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA,TUE-MON, FEB 24-MAR 2.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19 - MONDAY FEBRUARY 23:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 24 - MONDAY MARCH 02: THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE CONTINUE
TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA RIDGE
(TROUGH) OVER THE BERING SEA (ALASKA, WESTERN CANADA, AND NORTHWEST CONUS) FROM
THE END OF FEBRUARY TO THE BEGINNING OF MARCH. DUE TO THIS STABLE AND HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN, THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW HAZARDS WERE
BASED LARGELY ON THE 24-HOUR UNCALIBRATED AMOUNTS FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. BOTH
THE GEFS AND ECENS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASED CHANCES OF INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT (IVT) VALUES EXCEEDING 250 KG/M/S COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FOR PARTS OF
THE WEST COAST. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE ENHANCED IVT POTENTIAL OVER
CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD
IS ANTICIPATED TO FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF WEEK-2.
A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON FROM FEB 24-25, WHILE THE MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF WEEK-2. ACCORDING TO
THE GEFS AND ECENS, 7-DAY TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR WEEK-2 ARE NEAR 4
INCHES, LIQUID EQUIVALENT, ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS INCLUDING
THE COASTAL RANGES OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CASCADES OF OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. THE LONG DURATION OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION INCREASES THE CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTH TO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA (VALID FOR THE ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2). THE ECENS AND GEFS
SHOW INCREASED CHANCES FOR ENHANCED IVT VALUES (>250 KG/M/S) EXTENDING FURTHER
SOUTH TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW
IS MORE FAVORABLE THAN THE GEFS OF HEAVY RAINFALL REACHING SOUTHERN COASTAL
CALIFORNIA. DUE TO THIS DISPARITY AND UNCERTAINTY, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION RISK AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH RETROGRADING NORTHWESTWARD
LATER IN WEEK-2, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO RISING 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR CALIFORNIA TOWARDS THE END OF
FEBRUARY.
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES ALONG
WITH THE KLAMATH AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FEBRUARY.
THE 24-HOUR AMOUNTS FROM THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE SUPPORT AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND KLAMATH
MOUNTAINS FROM FEB 24-25 WITH THIS MODERATE RISK CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF
WEEK-2 FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CASCADES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN PROBABILITIES OF 7-DAY TOTALS EXCEEDING A FOOT BETWEEN THE GEFS
(>20%) AND ECENS (> 60%) ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA, PRECLUDING HIGH
RISKS FROM BEING DESIGNATED. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS DESIGNATED FOR THE
CASCADES, NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, KLAMATH MOUNTAINS, AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CASCADES BY THE END OF THE MONTH. DUE TO THE DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY WITH THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES INCLUDED IN THE
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW. FOR ELEVATIONS CLOSER TO SEA LEVEL, FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS MUCH HIGHER AND THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME.
THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH AND ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW ALSO SUPPORTS INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH
WINDS IS MAINTAINED FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WASHINGTON,
AND OREGON (VALID THROUGH WEEK-2).
MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SINKING FURTHER SOUTH AND FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
THIS PATTERN INCREASES CHANCES FOR MORE ENHANCED LEE CYCLOGENESIS. THIS
ENHANCED FEATURE COMBINED WITH ANTICIPATED SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER SUPPORTS THE ADDITION OF A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND GREAT PLAINS, FEB 24-28. THE ECENS (GEFS) PET
SHOWS AT LEAST A 40% (30%) CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY IN THE RISK AREA. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS
CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH
WEEK-2. GUSTY WINDS AND ANTICIPATED DRY CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED
WILDFIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PARCHED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER (NIFC) SHOWS A
MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE REGIONS TOWARDS THE
END OF WEEK-1 LEADING UP TO WEEK-2.
AFOREMENTIONED LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GREAT PLAINS COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE
LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA MAY INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION (FEB 25-27) IS POSTED FOR THE OHIO, MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF ANY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THERE IS AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS DESIGNATED FOR
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES REGION, AND NORTHEAST, FEB 24-27,
BASED MOSTLY ON WHERE THE GEFS AND ECENS HAVE NEAR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE
THAN 4 INCHES IN A 3-DAY PERIOD, WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT PET INDICATING AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY TOTALS EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA IS LESS AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THIS TRANSLATES TO DECREASED PROBABILITIES IN MODEL TOOLS OF
TEMPERATURES REACHING HAZARDS CRITERIA. THE MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN SCALED BACK
SLIGHTLY WITH LOWER SPATIAL COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA (TRIMMED
BACK THE WESTERN PORTIONS) AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, FEB
27-MAR 2. PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 30% (40% LOCALLY) CHANCE OF MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWEST 10TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHLIGHTED MODERATE RISK AREA. A BROADER AREA OF SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS FURTHER
NORTH TO THE CENTRAL MAINLAND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TIED TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING STRAIT, INTERIOR MAINLAND ALASKA, AND THE YUKON
ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT
RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. HIGH
WINDS COMBINED WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
VALUES. INTERIOR AREAS OF THE MAINLAND MAY EXPERIENCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF LESS
THAN -20 DEG F (-40 DEG F LOCALLY). GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN SET UP, THERE
IS INCREASED RISK OF GAP WINDS LOCALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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