275
FXUS21 KWNC 171934
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 17 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL HIGH (LOW) PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA (ALASKA, WESTERN
CANADA, AND NORTHWEST CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS)) CONTINUES TO BE PREDICTED FOR
WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH LESS AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FAVORS AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION,
HEAVY SNOW, AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF CALIFORNIA
WITH THE FOCUS OF THESE HAZARDS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY
THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXTEND INTO
THE INTERIOR WEST WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A
SURFACE LOW ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. ACROSS ALASKA,
THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MANY
PARTS OF THE MAINLAND. GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA
WOULD FURTHER DECREASE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. GAP WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LOCALLY
FOR SOME AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON, WED-THU, FEB 25-26.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WED-TUE, FEB
25-MAR 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
WED-THU, FEB 25-26.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, WED-TUE, FEB 25-MAR 3.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE KLAMATH AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, WED-THU, FEB 25-26.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES, WED-TUE, FEB 25-MAR 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES, KLAMATH MOUNTAINS,
AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, WED-TUE, FEB 25-MAR 3.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST, WED-SUN, FEB
25-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST, WED-TUE, FEB
25-MAR 3.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON,
WED-TUE, FEB 25-MAR 3.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND GREAT
PLAINS, WED-SUN, FEB 25-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE GREAT PLAINS, WED-TUE, FEB
25-MAR 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST,
WED-FRI, FEB 25-27.
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, WED-FRI, FEB
25-27.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION,
OHIO, MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND APPALACHIANS,
WED-FRI, FEB 25-27.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA
AND THE BROOKS RANGE NORTHWARD, WED-SUN, FEB 25-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
WED-TUE, FEB 25-MAR 3.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR FRIDAY FEBRUARY 20 - TUESDAY FEBRUARY 24:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 25 - TUESDAY MARCH 03: A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA RIDGE
(TROUGH) OVER THE BERING SEA (ALASKA, WESTERN CANADA, AND NORTHWEST CONUS) IS
ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. DUE TO
THIS STABLE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN, THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
HEAVY SNOW HAZARDS WERE BASED LARGELY ON THE 24-HOUR UNCALIBRATED AMOUNTS FROM
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASED
CHANCES OF INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) VALUES EXCEEDING 250 KG/M/S
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FOR PARTS OF THE WEST COAST. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE
ENHANCED IVT POTENTIAL OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED TO FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2.
A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON FROM FEB 25-26, WHILE THE MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF WEEK-2. ACCORDING TO
THE GEFS AND ECENS, 7-DAY TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR WEEK-2 MAY EXCEED 4
INCHES, LIQUID EQUIVALENT, ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS INCLUDING
THE COASTAL RANGES OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CASCADES OF OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. THE LONG DURATION OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION INCREASES THE CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
REMAINS DESIGNATED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, FEB 25-26, AND FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2. THERE IS
INCREASED AGREEMENT IN THE GEFS AND ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS)
INDICATING 3-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND ONE INCH ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THE
BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THEREFORE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE AMPLIFIED
500-HPA TROUGH RETROGRADING NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING LATER IN WEEK-2,
EVENTUALLY LEADING TO RISING 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES ALONG
WITH THE KLAMATH AND SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE EARLY MARCH.
THE 24-HOUR AMOUNTS FROM THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE SUPPORT AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND KLAMATH
MOUNTAINS FROM FEB 25-26 WITH THIS MODERATE RISK CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF
WEEK-2 FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CASCADES. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS
DESIGNATED FOR THE CASCADES, NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, KLAMATH
MOUNTAINS, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE ENTIRETY OF WEEK-2. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CASCADES BY THE END OF THE
MONTH. DUE TO THE DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SNOW LEVELS
ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY WITH THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE CASCADES INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW. FOR ELEVATIONS CLOSER
TO SEA LEVEL, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS MUCH HIGHER
AND THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME.
THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH AND ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW ALSO SUPPORTS INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH
WINDS IS MAINTAINED FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WASHINGTON,
AND OREGON (VALID THROUGH WEEK-2).
THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOWS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE
SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SUPPORTS A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND GREAT PLAINS, FEB 25-MAR 1.
THE ECENS (GEFS) PET SHOWS AT LEAST A 40% (20%) CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING
THE 85TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY IN THE RISK AREA. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK OF
HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH WEEK-2. GUSTY WINDS AND ANTICIPATED DRY CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN
ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PARCHED AREAS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER (NIFC) SHOWS A
MODERATE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE REGIONS TOWARDS THE
END OF WEEK-1 LEADING UP TO WEEK-2.
AFOREMENTIONED LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GREAT PLAINS COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE
LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS MAY INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY FEB
25-27 DUE TO INCREASED PROBABILITIES AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG UNCALIBRATED
MODEL GUIDANCE AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND ONE INCH IN THE ECENS PET. A BROADER AREA IS
DESIGNATED WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO,
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND APPALACHIANS FOR THE
SAME VALID PERIOD. ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF ANY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THERE IS
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW. SLIGHT RISKS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE DESIGNATED
FOR UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST FEB 25-27, BASED MOSTLY ON WHERE THE GEFS AND
ECENS HAVE NEAR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE THAN 4 INCHES IN A 3-DAY PERIOD,
WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT PET INDICATING AT
LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY TOTALS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. RISES ON RIVERS AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
IN GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DECREASING PROBABILITIES FOR
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE ACROSS ALASKA. THEREFORE THE MODERATE RISK OF
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE STATE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. DESPITE
DECREASED CERTAINTY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS
EXPERIENCING HAZARDOUS COLD. BROAD AREAS OF SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS HAZARD ARE
POSTED FOR SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE BROOKS RANGE NORTHWARD, FEB 25-MAR
1, WHERE THERE IS INCREASED MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT OF TEMPERATURES REACHING
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LEVELS. PETS INDICATE AT LEAST A 20-30% (40% LOCALLY)
CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWEST 10TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIED TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING STRAIT, INTERIOR
MAINLAND ALASKA, AND THE YUKON ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. HIGH WINDS COMBINED WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT
IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES. INTERIOR AREAS OF THE MAINLAND MAY EXPERIENCE
WIND CHILL VALUES OF LESS THAN -20 DEG F (-40 DEG F LOCALLY). GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED PATTERN SET UP, THERE IS INCREASED RISK OF GAP WINDS AND FREEZING
SPRAY LOCALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
FORECASTER: MELISSA OU
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