711
FXUS21 KWNC 191952
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 19 2026
SYNOPSIS: STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FAVORED TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, RESULTING IN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SNOW FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES, AS WELL AS BITTERLY COLD NORTHERLY FLOW FOR ALASKA. A FAST-MOVING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAVORED TO FORM OVER THE PLAINS LATE IN WEEK-1
AND MAY BRING HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS)
EARLY IN WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
FRI-SUN, FEB 27-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS, FRI-SUN, FEB 27-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, FRI-SUN, FEB
27-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND, FRI-SUN,
FEB 27-MAR 1.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN,
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, FRI-SUN, FEB 27-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, FRI-TUE, FEB 27-MAR 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, FRI-SUN, FEB
27-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE ALASKAN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, FRI-THU, FEB 27-MAR 5.
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, FRI-TUE, FEB 27-MAR 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF ALASKA, FRI-THU, FEB
27-MAR 5.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 22 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 26:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR FRIDAY FEBRUARY 27 - THURSDAY MARCH 05: AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 MULTIPLE
MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. LATE IN WEEK-1 AND INTO WEEK-2. WHILE MOST OF THE IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW LIKELY PRIOR TO THE FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY IN WEEK-2. UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE
ECENS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 6 INCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND
EARLY IN WEEK-2. THE GEFS UNCALIBRATED PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH
REGARD TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR THIS REGION, BUT AN ANALYSIS OF DAILY
SURFACE PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION SUGGESTS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW THAN
THE PROBABILITIES MAY INDICATE. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW REMAINS
POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND, VALID FEB 27-MAR 1. TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE ALSO DEPICTED BY MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WHICH ARE FAVORED TO ENHANCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES. THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES
TOOLS (PETS) FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS BOTH INDICATE BROAD AREAS WHERE 3-DAY
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS HAVE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THE 85TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AT VARIOUS POINTS DURING WEEK-2. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE OVERLAP BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EASTERN
CONUS. DRAWING ON BEST CONSENSUS AS WELL AS PATTERN RECOGNITION OF THE DAILY
SURFACE PRESSURE PROGRESSION, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR FEB 27-MAR 1.
A PERSISTENTLY STRONG MEAN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEPICTED THROUGHOUT
WEEK-2 OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES. THIS FEATURE IS
FAVORED TO INITIALLY DIRECT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AS
WELL AS USHER IN BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO ALASKA. TODAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE LESS BULLISH WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS PRECIPITATION AND
SNOW ALONG THE WEST COAST, BUT MORE BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS COLD IN ALASKA. ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS
DEPICT WIDESPREAD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW -20F THROUGHOUT WEEK-2 FOR MUCH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE PETS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS ALSO HAVE A VERY STRONG SIGNAL, WITH
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 80% FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW THE 15TH
PERCENTILE OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA EARLY IN WEEK-2 AND MAINTAINING AT LEAST
40% CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA IS FAVORED TO ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTS OF THE STATE AS WELL, RESULTING IN EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS. A MODERATE
RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES COLD IS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA FOR FEB 27-MAR 3. A CORRESPONDING SLIGHT RISK
AREA IS POSTED FOR THE WHOLE STATE, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, BOTH VALID FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
FURTHER SOUTH, THIS PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW IS FAVORED TO BRING ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. TODAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) INDICATE A NARROWER BAND OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST, FOCUSED ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH
MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A RATHER WEAKER SYSTEM RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. THE PETS
FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS STILL INDICATE AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF 3-DAY
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. UNCALIBRATED
PROBABILITIES FROM BOTH MODELS KEEP THE STRONGEST SIGNAL NORTH OF CALIFORNIA,
WITH WIDESPREAD PROBABILITIES OVER 40% OF 3-DAY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS TO
EXCEED 1 INCH. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON, VALID FEB 27-MAR 1. FURTHER INLAND, A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS ISSUED FOR THE CASCADES FOR FEB 27-MAR 1. HOWEVER, MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE LESS PENETRATION OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE INTERIOR WEST,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH NEEDED SNOWFALL OVER THE ROCKIES. UNCALIBRATED
PROBABILITIES FROM THE ECENS IN PARTICULAR STILL SHOW SOME SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY IN WEEK-2, WITH CHANCES FOR 3-DAY
ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW EXCEEDING 40% IN SOME LOCATIONS. A
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW REMAINS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FOR FEB 27-MAR 1.
FINALLY, TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS LIKELY TO
RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST, PARTICULARLY FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ENSEMBLE MEAN
WIND SPEEDS FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS REGULARLY EXCEED 20MPH ACROSS THESE
REGIONS, AND ABOVE 30MPH ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE PETS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS ALSO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL, WITH 40%
CHANCES OF 3-DAY WIND SPEEDS TO EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST. A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR FEB 27-MAR 1, AND A
SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AS WELL AS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT PLAINS, VALID FEB 27-MAR 3. THESE WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
EXACERBATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES IN THESE REGIONS.
FORECASTER: DANNY BARANDIARAN
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