467
FXUS21 KWNC 201952
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 20 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FORECASTED OVER ALASKA FAVORS HAZARDOUS COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE DURING WEEK-2. AN ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN IS
STILL FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), THOUGH IT IS
PREDICTED TO WIND DOWN WITH TIME. IN THE MEANTIME, LINGERING AREAS OF HAZARDOUS
PRECIPITATION, SNOW, AND WIND ARE DEPICTED OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL DETAILS REGARDING THE
PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS, PRECLUDING ANY SPECIFIC HAZARDS EXCEPT
FOR A WIND HAZARD EARLY IN WEEK-2 FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HAZARDOUS COLD FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, SAT-WED, FEB 28-MAR 4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HAZARDOUS COLD FOR NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA, SAT-FRI, FEB 28-MAR 6.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SAT-MON, FEB
28-MAR 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADES, SAT-MON, FEB 28-MAR 2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, FEB 28-MAR 2.
MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN,
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, SAT-SUN, FEB 28-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE WEST, AND MOST OF THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS, SAT-TUE, FEB 28-MAR 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM MAINE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH VIRGINIA, SAT-SUN, FEB 28-MAR 1.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, SAT-FRI,
FEB 28-MAR 6.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR MONDAY FEBRUARY 23 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 27:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 28 - FRIDAY MARCH 06: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
ALASKA FAVOR EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER ALASKA DURING WEEK-2. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE ALEUTIANS, A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
POSTED FOR ALASKA, VALID FOR ALL OF WEEK-2. A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND, MOST OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA FROM FEB 28-MAR 4. THIS
WIDESPREAD, UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOL (PET) FOR TEMPERATURE, AND UNCALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE
GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE MODELS. THE PET FAVORS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN
-20 DEG F FROM THE ARCTIC COAST SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF ANCHORAGE, AND THE
-40 DEG F THRESHOLD MAY BE EXCEEDED OVER FAR NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES OF -10 DEG F ARE PREDICTED FOR ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND. FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS NORTH OF AN APPROXIMATE LINE FROM KODIAK TO
SKAGWAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE <0 DEG F. THE GEFS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE HAZARDOUS COLD COMPARED TO THE ECENS. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ALASKA FAVORS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS (>85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
AND 40 KNOTS) OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, FOR THE DURATION OF
WEEK-2. THIS HAS SUPPORT FROM 0Z GEFS AND 0Z ECENS 10-METER WIND GUST
PREDICTIONS, AND THE RESPECTIVE WIND PETS.
OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), THERE ARE A NUMBER OF HAZARDS FOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HEAVY SNOW, AND HIGH WINDS, THOUGH THESE ARE EXPECTED ONLY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA, ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IS
FAVORED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2. UNCALIBRATED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND PRECIPITATION FROM THE PET
TOOL SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
SAT-MON, FEB 28-MAR 2. INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) FROM THE GEFS AND
ECENS LENDS SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS SLIGHT RISK AT THE 150 KG/M/SEC THRESHOLD
EARLY IN WEEK-2, THOUGH THE WET SIGNAL DISAPPEARS AT THE 250 KG/M/SEC
THRESHOLD. IN ADDITION, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW (6 INCHES OR MORE) IS
INDICATED FOR THE CASCADES (SAT-MON, FEB 28-MAR 2) AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
(SAT-MON, FEB 28-MAR 2), BASED ON RAW SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS
ENSEMBLE MEANS. BASED ON PET WIND GUIDANCE, FAVORED STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS, AND PREDICTED 10-METER WIND GUSTS FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS MODELS, A
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS (>85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 20-25 KTS) IS
POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST, AND MOST OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS, SAT-TUE,
FEB 28-MAR 3. AN EMBEDDED MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS INDICATED FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, SAT-SUN,
FEB 28-MAR 1.
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT INTER-MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DISTRIBUTION, TIMING, AND MAGNITUDE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEK-2
PERIOD. THE LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR HEAVY SNOW THAT WAS PREDICTED YESTERDAY
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED TODAY
DUE TO MUCH LESS SUPPORT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS/TOOLS. A MORE RELIABLE SIGNAL
FOR HIGH WINDS (>85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 20-25 KNOTS) WARRANTS A
BROAD (BUT REDUCED IN SIZE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY) SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS
OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM MAINE SOUTHWARD THROUGH VIRGINIA,
SAT-SUN, FEB 28-MAR 1.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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