669
FXUS21 KWNC 211900
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 21 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FORECASTED OVER ALASKA FAVORS HAZARDOUS COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE DURING WEEK-2. A DWINDLING ONSHORE FLOW
PATTERN PREDICTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS)
RESULTS IN NO HAZARDS BEING POSTED TODAY ACROSS THAT REGION. OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL DETAILS REGARDING
THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS, PRECLUDING ANY SPECIFIC HAZARDS
EXCEPT FOR A BROAD WIND HAZARD FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF WEEK-2.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HAZARDOUS COLD FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, SUN-MON, MAR 1-2.
SLIGHT RISK OF HAZARDOUS COLD FOR NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA, SUN-SAT, MAR 1-7.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, SUN-SAT,
MAR 1-7.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC, SUN, MAR 1.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 24 - SATURDAY FEBRUARY 28:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR SUNDAY MARCH 01 - SATURDAY MARCH 07: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER ALASKA FAVOR
EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER ALASKA DURING WEEK-2. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE ALEUTIANS, A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR
ALASKA, VALID FOR ALL OF WEEK-2. MODERATING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR OVER
SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA LATE IN WEEK-2. A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND, MOST OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA, AND PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA ON MAR 1-2. THIS WIDESPREAD,
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL
(PET) FOR TEMPERATURE, AND UNCALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE GEFS, ECENS, AND
CMCE MODELS. THE PETS FAVORS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -20 DEG F FROM
THE ARCTIC COAST SOUTHWARD TO THE ALASKA RANGE, AND THE -40 DEG F THRESHOLD MAY
BE EXCEEDED OVER FAR NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OF -5 TO -10 DEG F ARE PREDICTED FOR PLACES LIKE ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND ANCHORAGE. FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS NORTH OF AN APPROXIMATE
LINE FROM KODIAK TO SKAGWAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE <0 DEG F. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ALASKA FAVORS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS (>85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE AND 40 KNOTS) OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, FOR THE
DURATION OF WEEK-2. THIS HAS SUPPORT FROM 0Z GEFS AND 0Z ECENS 10-METER WIND
GUST PREDICTIONS, AND THE RESPECTIVE WIND PETS.
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, ALL WEATHER-RELATED HAZARDS HAVE BEEN DROPPED TODAY, AS
RAIN, SNOW, AND WIND VARIABLES ARE NOW FORECAST TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS
THRESHOLDS. INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) GUIDANCE FROM THE ECENS AND
GEFS SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AT THE 250 KG/M/SEC THRESHOLD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, A VALUE COMMONLY
CONSIDERED (AMONG OTHER TOOLS) TO JUSTIFY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAZARD.
HOWEVER, AT THE LOWER 150 KG/M/SEC THRESHOLD, THERE IS A WIDESPREAD, COHERENT
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL INDICATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH COULD REACH THE
WEST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF WEEK-2. IF THIS
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST, AS WELL AS REACH THE 250 KG/M/SEC
THRESHOLD TOMORROW OR MONDAY, A NEW ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HEAVY SNOW,
AND HIGH WIND HAZARDS MAY NEED TO BE POSTED.
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT INTER-MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DISTRIBUTION, TIMING, AND MAGNITUDE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION DURING ALL BUT THE
VERY START OF WEEK-2 PERIOD. ON DAY 8 (MAR 1), NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION,
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EAST IS FORECAST TO
STEER GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES, MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES,
NORTHEAST, AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC. THOUGH THE MODELS (GEFS/ECENS PETS AND
UNCALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FIELDS) ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE DETAILS
OF THE FORECASTED PRECIPITATION PATTERN, THEY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
SLIGHT RISK OF HAZARDOUS WIND (>85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 20-25 KNOTS)
ACROSS THESE AREAS ON MAR 1. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED PRESSURE
GRADIENT FIELDS FROM THE MODELS AROUND THE WEEK-1/WEEK-2 INTERFACE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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