532
FXUS21 KWNC 222020
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 22 2026
SYNOPSIS: MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FORECASTED OVER ALASKA FAVORS HAZARDOUS COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE DURING WEEK-2, AND HIGH WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST. A DWINDLING ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN PREDICTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) ONLY SUPPORTS A HEAVY SNOW HAZARD FOR THE
NORTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON STATE. OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS,
HIGH WINDS ARE FAVORED DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF WEEK-2, WHILE HEAVY SNOW
MAY FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF HAZARDOUS COLD FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, MON-TUE, MAR 2-3.
SLIGHT RISK OF HAZARDOUS COLD FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, MON-THU, MAR 2-5.
SLIGHT RISK OF HAZARDOUS COLD FOR NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA (OUTSIDE SOUTHEAST
ALASKA), MON-SUN, MAR 2-8.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE OHIO VALLEY, TUE-FRI, MAR 3-6.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN CASCADES, TUE-FRI, MAR 3-6.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC, MON-FRI,
MAR 2-6.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, MON-SUN,
MAR 2-8.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS,
MON-WED, MAR 2-4.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 25 - SUNDAY MARCH 01:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR MONDAY MARCH 02 - SUNDAY MARCH 08: MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER ALASKA
CONTINUE TO FAVOR EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER ALASKA DURING WEEK-2. WHILE
THE GEFS MAINTAINS SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE YUKON AND INTERIOR ALASKA, THE
ECENS (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CMCE) FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF IT TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA (FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH), ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE HAZARDOUS
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF HAZARDOUS COLD FROM MAR 2-5.
ELSEWHERE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HAZARDOUS COLD IS POSTED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE STATE, FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND, THE
ALASKA PENINSULA, AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS, MAR 2-3, REPRESENTING A SLIGHT
SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE FAVORED HAZARDOUS COLD FROM YESTERDAY. THIS
WIDESPREAD, UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOL (PET) FOR TEMPERATURE, AND UNCALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE
GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE MODELS. THE PETS FAVOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN
-20 DEG F FROM THE ARCTIC COAST SOUTHWARD TO THE ALASKA RANGE. TEMPERATURES OF
-5 TO -10 DEG F ARE PREDICTED FOR PLACES LIKE ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND
ANCHORAGE. FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS NORTH OF AN APPROXIMATE LINE FROM KODIAK TO
SKAGWAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE <0 DEG F. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALASKA
FAVORS A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS (>85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 40
KNOTS) OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, FOR THE DURATION OF WEEK-2.
THIS HAS SUPPORT FROM 0Z GEFS AND 0Z ECENS 10-METER WIND GUST PREDICTIONS, AND
THE RESPECTIVE WIND PETS. THE STRONGER WINDS FAVORED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE GAP WINDS.
FOR THE WESTERN CONUS, INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) GUIDANCE FROM THE
ECENS AND GEFS SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AT THE 250 KG/M/SEC
THRESHOLD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, A VALUE COMMONLY
CONSIDERED (AMONG OTHER TOOLS) TO JUSTIFY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAZARD.
HOWEVER, AT THE LOWER 150 KG/M/SEC THRESHOLD, THERE IS A WIDESPREAD, COHERENT
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL INDICATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH COULD REACH THE
WEST COAST PRIOR TO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. IF THIS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST, AS WELL AS REACH THE 250 KG/M/SEC THRESHOLD TOMORROW, A
NEW ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, HIGH WINDS, AND EXPANDED AREAS OF SNOW
HAZARDS MAY NEED TO BE POSTED. AT THIS TIME, THE ONLY POSTED HAZARD IS FOR
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES, MAR 3-6, WHERE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ONSHORE FLOW IS FAVORED. RAW SNOW TOTALS FROM THE 0Z UNCALIBRATED ECENS SUPPORT
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS AREA, WHILE THE
VARIOUS PETS PREDICT A MAXIMUM OF 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, THERE IS ENOUGH INTER-MODEL AGREEMENT TO POST A SLIGHT
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE VICINITY OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY, MAR 3-6. UNCALIBRATED DAILY PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS DEPICTS AN AXIS OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES RUNNING
THROUGH THIS REGION, WITH THE PETS INDICATING AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 1 INCH.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A MEAN BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THERE TO THE OHIO VALLEY ALSO FAVORS AN AREA
OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. WARM SECTOR RAINFALL
IS FAVORED SOUTH OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN ADDITION TO A DESIGNATED
PRECIPITATION HAZARD, A BROAD-SCALE WIND HAZARD IS ALSO ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE STRONGER
ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS AND ANTICIPATED PRESSURE GRADIENTS (MAR 2-4). WITHIN THIS
BROAD WIND SHAPE, WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED THE 85TH HISTORICAL
PERCENTILE AND 20-25 MPH. FINALLY, OVER THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC,
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FROM MAR 2-6. ECENS RAW SNOW TOTALS
SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW, SPREAD OUT OVER MUCH OF
WEEK-2. THIS IS THOUGHT TO BE ASSOCIATED NOT WITH ONE PARTICULARLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT RATHER WITH WEAK MEAN CYCLONIC CURVATURE CENTERED
UPSTREAM, AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH IT.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
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