141
FXUS21 KWNC 231938
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 23 2026
SYNOPSIS: A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING WEEK-2 WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOMING
MORE LIKELY OVER MANY AREAS, AND DECREASING CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER. INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS THE CONUS MAY LEAD
TO AREAS OF ENHANCED FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, AND
POSSIBLY WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FORECAST ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA, ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE IS PREDICTED TO
DECREASE ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
HAZARDS
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA THROUGH THE INTERIOR MAINLAND, TUE, MAR 3.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA EXCLUDING
SOUTHEAST, TUE-MON, MAR 3-9.
SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, TUE-WED,
MAR 3-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS, TUE-SAT, MAR 3-7.
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, TUE-WED, MAR 3-4.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, TUE-MON,
MAR 3-9.
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
CONUS, TUE-THU, MAR 3-5.
DETAILED SUMMARY
FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 26 - MONDAY MARCH 02:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
FOR TUESDAY MARCH 03 - MONDAY MARCH 09: DURING WEEK-2, RIDGING AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. CONVERSELY
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ARE FAVORED ACROSS CANADA
EXTENDING INTO ALASKA. THIS SET-UP LEADS TO A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND DECREASING CONFIDENCE REGARDING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
PERIODIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE COUNTRY, WITH
FRONTALLY FOCUSED PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EXTENDING INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PROBABILISTIC
EXTREMES TOOLS (PETS) DEPICT AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE 3-DAY PRECIPITATION
TOTALS EXCEED THE 85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 1-INCH OVER THESE AREAS.
THE UNCALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT THE PETS AND DEPICT
WEEK-2 TOTAL PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 2-INCHES. AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT RISK OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND INTO
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS, MAR 3-7.
A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER IN WEEK-1 INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2 WHICH MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. THE UNCALIBRATED ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATES AT
LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 3-DAY SNOW TOTALS TO EXCEED 4-INCHES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND, AND SEVERAL
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT MULTIPLE FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION, EACH BRINGING AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF WINTRY
WEATHER. WHILE THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT WINTRY WEATHER COULD ALSO EXTEND INTO
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
DECREASING SNOW CLIMATOLOGY HEADING TO MARCH ALONG WITH THE POSITIVE PHASE OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (+NAO). THEREFORE, THE SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY
SNOW IS LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND, MAR 3-4.
PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND EACH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY IN WEEK-2. THE ECMWF PET
DEPICTS THESE AREAS HAVING AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE WIND SPEEDS EXCEED THE
85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND 20-MPH SUPPORTING A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH
WINDS, MAR. 3-5. SOUTHERN AREAS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED GIVEN THE WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY HIGHER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS.
NO HAZARDS ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT
(IVT) IS GENERALLY MARGINAL IN THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES, WITH ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF VALUES EXCEEDING 150 KG/M/S FOCUSED ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WHILE EPISODES OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE CASCADES, HAZARDS THRESHOLDS ARE NO LONGER
FORECAST TO BE REACHED.
RIDGING (TROUGHING) OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA (ALASKA)
CONTINUE TO FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF ALASKA DURING WEEK-2.
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE, WITH
TROUGHING SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THIS FAVORS A
PERSISTENCE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA, RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA BY THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2 TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLAND FOR DAY-8 (MAR 3) BASED
ON ENHANCED SIGNALS IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF PETS, WHICH SHOW SOME AREAS HAVING AT
LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW THE 10TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND -20 DEG F. PROBABILITIES ARE A BIT LOWER ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA BUT THERE IS STILL THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN -10 DEG F. DUE TO LESS EXTREME TEMPERATURE
THRESHOLDS, THESE AREAS REMAIN IN THE MODERATE RISK. COLDER WIND CHILL VALUES
ARE FORECAST WITH MANY INTERIOR AREAS LIKELY IN THE -25 TO -40 DEG F RANGE
BASED ON THE 0Z DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES THROUGHOUT WEEK-2 ACROSS MOST OF THE MAINLAND INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE SLIGHT RISK IS DISCONTINUED AFTER
DAY-9 (MAR 4) ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING TREND
AND ASSOCIATED DECREASE IN SIGNAL IN THE PETS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA FAVOR A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF ALASKA, FOR ALL OF WEEK-2. THESE STRONG WINDS, MAINLY GAP WINDS,
COMBINED WITH THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
WIND CHILL VALUES, FURTHER JUSTIFYING THE PROLONGED SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ALSO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA IN THE PETS TIED TO THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW, BUT ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE
FAIRLY MARGINAL AND DO NOT SUPPORT A RELATED HAZARD AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
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